Horse Racing

Turners Novices’ Hurdle Trends Suggest The New Lion CAN’T WIN Day Two Cheltenham Festival Race

Andy Newton Sports Editor

Published11 Mar 2025

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There are many Turners Novices’ Hurdle trends to apply to the 2025 Cheltenham Festival race on Wednesday 12th to help find the winner – including a big stat that suggests one of the main fancies – The New Lion – CAN’T WIN the opening race on day two.

Also see Andy Newton’s best Cheltenham bets and hot stats for DAY TWO here.

Challow Hurdle Winners Are Currently 0-21 In The Turners Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham

So, what is one of the key Turners Novices’ Hurdle trends that THE NEW LION has to overcome?

In short, it’s the fact that winners of the Challow Hurdle have a dire record in following up in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

The New Lion, who has since been bought by top Irish owner JP McManus, trounced his rivals in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury on 28th December (watch below) and since then has shot to the top of the betting for the Turners – along with the Willie Mullins-trained Final Demand.

However, those wanting to wade into The New Lion might want to think twice as winners of the Challow have not fared well at the Cheltenham Festival later that season.

Heading into 2025 – Challow Hurdle winners are 0-21.

Last year’s Challow hero (2023-24) Captain Teague actually took in the Albert Bartlett, but didn’t fare any better with a 10th (of 13) finish.

While before that, the 2022-23 Challow Hurdle winner Hermes Allen was a well beaten 6th in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle having been sent off as the 9/4 fancied favourite.

Then the 2021-22 victor Stage Star was pulled up at Cheltenham and Bravemansgame in 2020-21 managed just third in the Turners behind Bob Olinger.

Even the mighty Denman won the Challow Hurdle in 2005-06 and was beaten as the 11/10 favourite with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK at Cheltenham that season.

This Season’s Challow Hurdle Form Has Already Taken A Few Knocks

When winning the 2024-25 Challow Hurdle, The New Lion breezed by Wendigo in second and Bill Joyce in third – with the Paul Nicholls-trained favourite Regent’s Stroll back in fourth.

However, since that December race, the third Bill Joyce, has hardly d the form – being a well-beaten third (12 lengths) on Trials Day at Cheltenham at the end of January. With Sixmilebridge winning that day (watch here).

Okay, the runner-up Wendigo has won since – that was a poor race when sent off as 1/11 with the best betting sites in the UK.

But Regent’s Stroll has also been beaten since – when second at odds-on at Exeter.

Which, overall, gives the whole Challow Hurdle form some questions to answer.

The New Lion Career In Numbers

Age: 6
Runs: 4
Wins: 4
Hurdles Runs/Wins: 3/3
Career Prize Money: £71,491

Turners Novices’ Hurdle 2025 Race Details

📅Date: Wednesday 12th March 2025
⌚Time: 1:20pm
🏇Racecourse: Cheltenham
🔄Trip: 2m 5f
💷Winning Purse: £84,405
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV

Willie Mullins Has Won The Last Three Runnings Of The Turners Novices’ Hurdle

Turners Novices' Hurdle Trends Suggest The New Lion CAN'T WIN Day Two Cheltenham Festival Race

The New Lion is currently just behind Final Demand in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle betting market – a horse trained by Willie Mullins, who has won this race for the last three seasons.

In fact, Mr Mullins has landed this Cheltenham Festival prize money seven times over the years – with his first in 2008 and his most recent Ballyburn 12 months ago.

Mullins, who has 103 Festival winners heading into 2025, is the winning-most trainer of the Turners Novices’ Hurdle.

While the Irish overall have a top record in the race – winning 9 of the last 10. Only the Ben Pauling-trained Willoughby Court has stopped Ireland winning all of the last ten.

Fiveforthree (2008)
Mikael d’Haguenet (2009)
Faugheen (2014)
Yorkhill (2016)
Sir Gerhard (2022)
Impaire Et e (2023)
Ballyburn (2024)

Five Of The Last Seven Turners Novices’ Hurdle Favourites Have Won

The Turners Novices’ Hurdle has also been a good race for Cheltenham favourite backers in recent times – with five of the last seven winning.

These also include four of the last five – with Ballyburn in 1/2 the most recent market leaders to land the spoils.

This favourites record is another plus for Final Demand, but with The New Lion only just behind him in the market, come the day we could have different jollies – we’ll see.

Other Key Turners Novices’ Hurdle Trends 2025

20 of the last 24 returned 17/2 or shorter
24 of the last 30 won last time out
18 of the last 20 from the top 4 in the betting
7 of the last 11 were unbeaten over hurdles
13 of the last 16 from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
29 of the last 30 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
The Irish have won 15 of the last 22 (10 of last 11)
Horses rated 150+ do well
13 of the last 16 had won a Graded Novice Hurdle
25 of the last 30 (including last 13) had won at least one bumper race
18 of the last 19 were aged 5 or 6 years-old
11 of the last 14 winners were aged 6
In the last 13 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 27 of the 39 top 3 places
24 of the last 26 were NH bred
1 of the last 26 had won a graded race before
Past Irish point-to-point winners (9 of the last 14 had won an Irish Point)
Willie Mullins – 7 winners in last 17 years (5 of the last 11)
Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
Horses aged 7 or older are 1 from 60 (since 1988)
Just two of the last 38 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
The last 21 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten 0 from 30 in the last 18 years)

Recent Turners Novices’ Hurdle Winners

2024 – Ballyburn (1/2 fav)
2023 – Impaire Et e (5/2)
2022 – Sir Gerhard (8/11 fav)
2021 – Bob Olinger (6/4 fav)
2020 – Envoi Allen (4/7 fav)
2019 – City Island (8/1)
2018 – Samcro (8/11 fav)
2017 – Willoughby Court (14/1)
2016 – Yorkhill (3/1)
2015 – Windsor Park (9/2)