Horse Racing

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends Say Favourite Kopek Des Bordes Has Huge 90% Stat To Overcome

Andy Newton Sports Editor

Published10 Feb 2025

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The curtain will go up for another Cheltenham Festival on Tuesday March 11th, with the first race – as always – the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – where we’ve got big favourite in the shape of Kopek Des Bordes. However, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle trends from the last 20 years might give those AGAINST the Mullins-trained hot favourite something to cling to.

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Has Only Seen TWO Winning Outright Favourites Since 2005

This Supreme Novices’ Hurdle trend in question is to do with the Cheltenham favourite in the opening Festival race.

As since 2005, there has only been TWO outright winning favourites with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

Yes, Constitution Hill won as the 9/4 t-jolly in 2022 – which, considering what he’s gone onto do since, is a price that makes you stand up and say – how did this Henderson horse go off so big?

But that year, this year’s Champion Hurdle market leader was sent off as the t favourite – not with Jonbon, who was 22 lengths back in second that day – but with Dysart Dynamo.

However, since 2022 we’ve seen the 2023 market leader Facile Vega beaten (2nd) by Marine Nationale and 12 months ago Slade Steel won (watch below) with the favourite Tullyhill way back in 8th.

You can also see Andy Newton’s best Cheltenham bets and hot stats for ALL the DAY ONE Festival races.

Kopek Des Bordes Will Look To Be The First 2025 Cheltenham Banker To Win

The 2025 Festival day one line-up is littered with potential Cheltenham bankers and many horse racing punters feel Kopek Des Bordes will be the first.

After winning over Christmas at Leopardstown and not jumping well, the Willie Mullins-trained 5 year-old polished up his hurdling next time when romping away with the Tattersalls Irish Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival in early February (watch below).

There was talk of the Turners Novices’ Hurdle for Kopek Des Bordes before that win – however, Mullins came out quickly after his Leopardstown success to say the Supreme would be his target – which led to his price being smashed up into odds-on with the best betting sites in the UK.

It’s also been announced that Kopek will also sport the first time hood having been a bit ‘buzzy’ before his races in the past.

Those looking to take him on might also cling to a Mullins stat that has seen his first-time headgear horses at the Festival just 1-33 (6 places)

So – can he become only the third winning outright Supreme favourite since 2005?

Appreciate It and Douvan The Only Winning Supreme Novices’ Hurdling Winning Outright Favourites In Last 20 Years

Before Constitution Hill’s t-favourite win in 2022, the only two winning Supreme Novices’ Hurdle favourites to oblige in the last 20 years were Appreciate It in 2021 and Douvan in 2015.

Douvan was also the first leg of many accas in 2015 that ended with the famous Annie Power final flight fall in the Mares’ Hurdle – with Un De Sceaux winning the Arkle and Faugheen landing the Champion Hurdle.

Prior to Appreciate It and Douvan winning the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle as outright favourites – you have to go all the way back to Brave Inca’s 2004 win to find the next. That year he rewarded followers as the 7/2 market leader – landing the money under jockey Barry Cash (sorry).

Other beaten Supreme Novices’ Hurdle favourites in recent years were Asterion Forlonge (2020), Al Dancer and Fakir D’oudairies (2019), Getabird (2018), Melon and Ballyandy (2017) and Min (2016) when the mighty Altior won.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2025 Race Details

📅Date: Tuesday 11th March 2025
⌚Time: 1:20pm
🏇Racecourse: Cheltenham
🔄Trip: 2m 1/2f
💷Winning Purse: £84,405
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV

The Plus For Kopek Des Bordes Is Willie Mullins Is The Winning-Most Trainer In The Supreme

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Trends Say Favourite Kopek Des Bordes Has Huge 90% Stat To Overcome

So, yes, Kopek Des Bordes has this big 90% favourite stat to try and kick into touch.

But the good news for his backers is there are also many Supreme Novices’ Hurdle trends in his favour – including being trained by a certain Willie Mullins, who is the winning-most handler in the history on the race with SEVEN wins.

Infact, the very first Willie Mullins-trained Cheltenham Festival winner came in this race back in 1995 when his Tourist Attraction landed the spoils.

The last two winning favourites in the Supreme – Appreciate It and Douvan – were, of course, Mullins-trained too.

The race has also seen 24 of the last 28 winners having won last time out – another plus for Kopek Des Bordes (and many others).

While 12 of the last 13 winners had won a graded novice hurdle earlier in the season, 15 of the last 16 were aged 5 or 6 – plus 92% of the last 12 had returned 6/1 or shorter.

Therefore, if you are against Kopek Des Bordes – then the poor return for favourites in this Festival opener is what you’ll be clinging to.

However, if you feel he’s going to get market leader backers off to the perfect start, then the record of the Willie Mullins yard in the race (7 wins) could trump this headline trend.

You decide.

Other Key Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends 2025

Positive Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends

24 of the last 28 winners won last time out
14 of the last 21 winners had run in at least 4 hurdles races
13 of the last 15 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
12 of the last 13 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle
22 of the last 30 winners raced in the last 45 days
8 of the last 12 winners were either (5) Mullins or (3) Henderson-trained
27 of the last 30 winners had raced that same calendar year
Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 12 renewals
Irish-trained horses have won 19 of the last 33 renewals
5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 18 of the last 20 renewals
Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times in total and 5 of the last 12 years
6 of the last 11 winners had been rated 153 or more
11 of the last 12 winners returned a single-figure price
11 of the last 16 winners were previous bumper winners
Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times in total (first in 1995)
Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times in total

Negative Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends

Only 2 outright winning favourites in the last 20 runnings
4 year-olds are 0-15 since 2000
Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 4 from the last 28. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
Since 1992 all horses (40) wearing head-gear have lost
We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
Only 4 of the last 22 winners came here unbeaten
Only 2 of the last 22 winners aged 7 or older
Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-8 in the last decade

Recent Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Winners

2024 – Slade Steel (7/2)
2023 – Marine Nationale (9/2)
2022 – Constitution Hill (9/4 jfav)
2021 – Appreciate It (8/11 fav)
2020 – Shishkin (6/1)
2019 – Klassical Dream (6/1)
2018 – Summerville Boy (9/1)
2017 – Labaik (25/1)
2016 – Altior (4/1)
2015 – Douvan (2/1 fav)