Golf
The Stats That Show Why Rory McIlroy Will Win The Masters And Complete His Career Grand Slam
Kieran Lynch is a sports writer specialising in football and Formula One. He is a sports journalism graduate of Leeds Trinity University and completed a Press Association NCTJ course in Newcastle. He previously worked as a news reporter for the Eastern Daily Press in Norfolk and spent five years as a sports writer at the MailOnline.
Get to know Kieran Lynch betterPublished13 Apr 2025
The 89th edition of the Masters gets underway this week, and below SportsCasting has the stats that show why Rory McIlroy wear the famous green jacket for the first time.
McIlroy famously threw away victory in 2011 at Augusta National. That was as close as he has come to winning the Masters, though he has won all three other golf majors.
The Northern Irishman will be hoping to finally complete his Grand Slam this week and the stats below show why his long wait could come to an end.
X @GolfRamble has found seven trends that the last seven winners of the Masters have all accomplished. The last seven winners have been Scottie Scheffler on two occasions, Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Dustin Johnson, Tiger Woods and Patrick Reed.
There are five players that meet all seven trends. However, SportsCasting has added one stat that separates the final five.
7 of the last 7 Masters winners:
– were Top 30 in OWGR/DG
– finished Top 15 in one/both of the last two majors
– had a previous major Top 5
– had a Top 5 finish on the season
– had a previous Top 25 at ANGC
– ranked Top 25 in SG: T2G
– ranked Top 50 in both SG: App and SG: AtG— Ramble (@GolfRamble) April 7, 2025
Stats Which Show Why Rory McIlroy Will Win The Masters
Ranked Top 30 In Either World Golf Or Data Golf Rankings
The current top 30 in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) all meet the first criteria.
Six players also make this list as they make the top 30 in Data Golf’s Rankings. Those include Joaquin Niemann, Sergio Garcia, Denny McCarthy, Michael Kim, Taylor Pendrith and Jason Day.
In Contention (36) – Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, Vitor Hovland, Maverick McNealy, Wyndham Clark, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, Keegan Bradley, Patrick Cantlay, Robert MacIntyre, Tyrrell Hatton, Bryson DeChambeau, Billy Horschel, Corey Conners, Brian Harman, Min Woo Lee, Akshay Bhatia, Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Thomas Detry, Aaron Rai, J.J Spaun, Lucas Glover, Joaquin Niemann, Sergio Garcia, Denny McCarthy, Michael Kim, Taylor Pendrith and Jason Day.
Finished Top 15 In One Or Both Of The Last Two Majors
The second piece of criteria takes 20 players out of contention including Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton.
The last two majors were won by Xander Schauffele (The Open Championship) and Bryson DeChambeau (U.S. Open).
In Contention (16): Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Billy Horschel, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, Thomas Detry, Sergio Garcia and Jason Day
Eliminated (20): Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Maverick McNealy, Wyndham Clark, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, Keegan Bradley, Robert MacIntyre, Tyrrell Hatton, Brian Harman, Min Woo Lee, Akshay Bhatia, Sahith Theegala, Aaron Rai, J.J. Spaun, Lucas Glover, Joaquin Niemann, Denny McCarthy, Michael Kim and Taylor Pendrith
Had A Previous Top 5 Finish At A Major
Only one of the 16 players remaining has never finished inside the top five of a major.
Canadian Corey Conners achieved his best major finish with a tied-sixth at the Masters back in 2022.
In Contention (15): Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im, Thomas Detry, Sergio Garcia and Jason Day
Eliminated (1): Corey Conners
Had A Top 5 Finish This Season
The 2024 Open Championship winner Xander Schauffele is the only player remaining who has not finished in the top five this season.
Schauffele was out of action for eight weeks this season due to a rib injury.
He has played in four events – three of which since he returned to action. However, his injury clearly has still been affecting him as he has finished no higher than 12th this season.
In Contention (14): Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im, Thomas Detry, Sergio Garcia and Jason Day
Eliminated (1): Xander Schaufele
Has Previous Top 25 Finish At Augusta National
This will be the first year that Belgian Thomas Detry competes at the famous Augusta National golf course for the Masters.
The 32-year-old who finished a tied-fourth at the PGA Championship last year, fails to meet this criteria.
In Contention (13): Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im, Sergio Garcia and Jason Day
Eliminated (1): Thomas Detry
Strokes Gained World Rating Top 25
The 2017 Masters champion Sergio Garcia is one of two players who fail to progress to the next criteria.
Garcia doesn’t make the top 100 for the strokes gained world rating as per the Official World Golf Ranking’s website.
The other player is Australian Jason Day who only ranked 36 for strokes gained.
In Contention (11): Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Billy Horschel, Sungjae Im
Eliminated (2): Sergio Garcia and Jason Day
Ranked Top 50 In Both SG: Approach The Green And SG: Around The Green
The final criteria that the last seven Masters winners have all achieved leaves five potential winners of the Masters 2025.
Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama and Collin Morikawa all place in the top 50 rankings for both shots gained, approach the green and around the green rankings.
This would put the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Aberg and Bryson DeChambeau out of contention.
In Contention (5): Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley and Shane Lowry.
Eliminated (6): Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, Billy Horschel and Sungjae Im.
Top 50 In Driving Distance This Year
After extensive research there was not much criteria to separate Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley and Shane Lowry.
That shows how close the Masters could be this year, especially when you add the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and potential wildcard winners.
However, one regular trend of Masters winners we have found is ranking inside the top 50 for driving distance in the year leading up to their Masters win.
Stats show that 15 of the last 16 Masters winners have all placed inside the top 50 for driving distance.
Only one player out of the five remaining golfers are in the top 50 for driving distance this year.
Hideki Matsuyama is at No 94, Shane Lowry is 152nd, Collin Morikawa is 168th and Russell Henley is all the way down in 174th.
Rory McIlroy is sixth for driving distance this year, which is why the stats show that he could be the one to win the Masters this year.