Football

Premier League Clubs in Europe: Champions League, Europa League, & Europa Conference League Qualification Permutations Explained

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This is it! The conclusion of the 2024-25 Premier League season is finally upon us. Liverpool have clinched the title, ending Manchester City’s four-year dominance, while Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton have been relegated to the Championship. All that is left is the battle for Europe, and there are plenty of teams currently in the running.

Ahead of the final Matchday of the 2024-25 Premier League season on Sunday, May 25, SportsCasting examines all the permutations for Champions League, Europa League, and Europa Conference League qualifications.

Let’s dive in!

How Many Premier League Clubs Will Play in the Champions League Next Season?

This season, the top five — instead of the traditional top four — Premier League clubs will directly qualify for the 2024-25 Champions League season. This extra European Performance Spot comes courtesy of Premier League clubs’ encouraging performances in all UEFA competitions this season.

Of course, the winners of the 2024-25 UEFA Europa League final between Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United will also feature in the Champions League next season. Interestingly, this season’s Europa League winners will go into the history books as the lowest-placed team to win a major European trophy.

So, in total, six Premier League clubs will feature in the Champions League next season.

Premier League Champions League Qualification

Teams That Have Qualified for the Champions League

Liverpool, who became one of the fastest title winners in Premier League history, will feature in the Champions League next season.

Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal may have missed out on the Premier League title for the third consecutive time, but they can take heart knowing they will return to the Champions League next season.

Going into Matchday 38, Liverpool and Arsenal are the only two teams confirmed to play in the Champions League next season, leaving the remaining three spots up for grabs.

Five Teams in the Running to Qualify for UCL

Only three points separate the five teams ranked from third to seventh in the Premier League table.

Manchester City, who will finish without a trophy this season, are in third place with 68 points, trailing second-ranked Arsenal by 3. Newcastle United in fourth, Chelsea in fifth, and Aston Villa in sixth all have 66 points to their name, but are separated by goal difference. The Magpies are leading with a GD of +22, Chelsea’s GD is +20, and Aston Villa have a +9 GD.

Nottingham Forest, sitting in seventh place with 65 points, are also in the running.

Image via: Premier League

How Can Man City Qualify for the Champions League Next Season?

Manchester City will face Fulham away at Craven Cottage in their final Premier League fixture. Since they have a two-point lead and a superior goal difference to their opponents, Man City will qualify even if they draw with Fulham.

They will only miss out on Champions League qualification if they lose against Fulham and Newcastle, Chelsea, as well as Aston Villa win their matches on Sunday.

Manchester City – Champions League Qualification Scenario
Final Fixture Fulham (Away)
If They Win Finish on 71 points and qualify for the Champions League
If They Draw Manchester City will qualify
If They Lose They will miss out only if Newcastle, Chelsea, and Aston Villa all win

How Can Newcastle United Qualify for the Champions League Next Season?

Newcastle United will host 13th-placed Everton in their final Premier League match on May 25. If they win, they will finish on 69 points, which should secure a top-five finish.

If the Magpies draw, they will still qualify if Chelsea and Aston Villa (also on 66 points) drop points. In case they lose, they will be out of the running unless Chelsea and Aston Villa also lose.

Newcastle United – Champions League Qualification Scenario
Final Fixture Everton (Home)
If They Win Finish on 69 points and qualify for the Champions League
If They Draw Qualify if Chelsea and Aston Villa drop points
If They Lose Eliminated if Chelsea and/or Aston Villa avoid defeat and Nottingham win

How Can Chelsea Qualify for the Champions League Next Season?

Chelsea will face Nottingham Forest away from home in their final Premier League encounter. If they win, they are likely to qualify, thanks to their significantly superior goal difference. If they draw, they need Villa / Newcastle United to drop points as well.

In case of defeat, Nottingham will end up on 68 points and will finish above Chelsea. Chelsea can only qualify if Newcastle and Aston Villa also lose. The Magpies must also lose by a big margin to negate the goal difference.

With Man City also on 68 points (as of Matchday 37), the fifth and final Champions League spot will go to Aston Villa if they avoid defeat and Newcastle lose. If Villa lose, Newcastle will qualify even if they lose, thanks to their superior goal difference. If both teams win, Newcastle will finish above Villa.

Chelsea – Champions League Qualification Scenario
Final Fixture Nottingham Forest (Away)
If They Win Likely to qualify due to superior goal difference, finishing on 69 points
If They Draw Need Aston Villa or Newcastle United to drop points
If They Lose Eliminated unless Newcastle* & Villa also lose; Nottingham Forest will overtake them with 68 points

How Can Aston Villa Qualify for the Champions League Next Season?

Aston Villa will finish on 69 points if they win against Manchester United. They can only qualify if Chelsea or Newcastle United drop points. If they draw or lose, they are all but guaranteed to miss out.

Aston Villa – Champions League Qualification Scenario
Final Fixture Manchester United (Away)
If They Win Finish on 69 points and qualify only if Chelsea or Newcastle drop points
If They Draw Very unlikely to qualify; will need Chelsea and Newcastle to lose, plus goal difference advantage
If They Lose Eliminated from Champions League contention

How Can Nottingham Forest Qualify for the Champions League Next Season?

Nottingham Forest will, of course, face Chelsea on Matchday 38. They can only qualify if they beat Chelsea and Aston Villa or Newcastle United drop points. Nottingham will crash out if they draw or lose.

Nottingham Forest – Champions League Qualification Scenario
Final Fixture Chelsea (Home)
If They Win Finish on 68 points and qualify only if Aston Villa or Newcastle United drop points
If They Draw Eliminated from Champions League contention
If They Lose Eliminated from Champions League contention

Now, on to the Europa League.

Premier League Europa League Qualification

Teams That Have Qualified for the Europa League

The Premier League gets two spots for the second-most prestigious European competition, the UEFA Europa League. After beating Manchester City in the FA Cup final on May 17, Crystal Palace became the first Premier League team to qualify for the Europa League. The second Europa League team will qualify from the league.

Since the top five teams will qualify for the Champions League this season, the team sitting in sixth place will directly qualify for UEL.

Which Teams are in the Running for the Europa League?

There are not many permutations for the second Europa League spot. With Brighton & Hove Albion sitting seven points behind seventh-ranked Nottingham Forest, they are not in the running for the UEL spot. So, the last Europa spot will go to the team that misses out on Champions League qualification.

Go through the table below to find all the permutations for a sixth-placed finish.

Team Conditions to Qualify for the Europa League
Manchester City Lose to Fulham and Newcastle, Chelsea, and Aston Villa all win
Newcastle United Draw or lose vs Everton and Chelsea (or Forest) and Villa win
Chelsea Draw or lose to Nottingham Forest, and Newcastle and Villa win
Aston Villa Win vs Man United, and Chelsea and Newcastle also win
Nottingham Forest Beat Chelsea, and either Newcastle or Aston Villa drop points

Finally, we have the Europa Conference League.

Premier League Europa Conference League Qualification

The team that wins the EFL Cup qualifies for the UEFA Europa Conference League. This year, Newcastle United claimed the League Cup, beating the mighty Liverpool 2-1. So, Newcastle United are guaranteed to play in the Europa Conference League.

However, since Newcastle United are fourth in the Premier League rankings, there is a good chance they would finish inside the top five and qualify for the Champions League. In that case, the seventh-ranked team will qualify for the Europa Conference League. Nottingham Forest currently sit in seventh place with 65 points.

Ten Premier League Clubs Could Be in Europe Next Season

The top seven in the Premier League, the winners of the Europa League final between Tottenham Hotspur vs Man Utd, and the FA Cup winners, Crystal Palace, are all guaranteed to play in Europe next season, making it nine participations from the English top flight.

Interestingly, in two scenarios, a whopping 10 Premier League clubs could go to Europe, all thanks to Chelsea.

Enzo Maresca’s side have qualified for the Europa Conference League final. If they manage to beat Real Betis in the showpiece event on May 28, they will directly qualify for the Europa League.

How Can the Eighth-Ranked Premier League Team Qualify for Europe?

If Chelsea win the Europa Conference League, they can send the eighth-best Premier League team to the Conference League in one of two ways.

#1 Chelsea Finish Seventh and Win the Conference League

In this scenario, Chelsea (as Conference League winners), Crystal Palace (FA Cup winners), and the sixth-ranked Premier League side qualify for the Europa League. Since Chelsea finished seventh and qualified for the Europa League, the team in eighth will go the the Europa Conference League.

European Qualification Position
Champions League Spots Top five teams in the Premier League
Europa League Spot #1 FA Cup Winners – Crystal Palace
Europa League Spot #2 UEFA Conference League Winners – Chelsea
Europa League Spot #3 Sixth-placed team in the Premier League
Europa Conference League Seventh-placed team in the Premier League (Chelsea finished 7th, so 8th takes this spot)

 

#2 Chelsea Finish Sixth and Win the Conference League, And Newcastle Finish Seventh

If this happens, Chelsea will qualify for the Europa League as Conference League winners, freeing up the league spot reserved for the competition. Newcastle United, who had a Conference League spot, would benefit and qualify for the Europa League from seventh place. This will allow the eighth-ranked team to qualify for the Europa Conference League.

Position / Achievement European Qualification
Champions League Spots Top five teams in the Premier League
Europa League Spot #1 UEFA Conference League Winners – Chelsea
Europa League Spot #2 FA Cup Winners – Crystal Palace
Europa League Spot #3 Goes to seventh-placed team – Newcastle United
Europa Conference League Goes to eighth-placed team in the Premier League