Horse Racing

Grand Annual Chase Trend That Has Found 79% Of The Last 14 Cheltenham Festival Winners

Andy Newton Sports Editor

Published09 Mar 2025

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One of the big Cheltenham handicap races over the four-day meeting is the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase, which is run on the Wednesday – and to help find the winner we’ve got a top 79% Grand Annual Chase trend that will narrow down the field.

Oh, and at this stage this key Cheltenham stat rules out the top two in the Grand Annual market.

79% Of The Last 14 Grand Annual Winners Were Rated Between 138 and 147

Twelve months ago, we saw the Dan Skelton-trained Unexpected Party win the Grand Annual Chase carrying 10st 11lbs and rated 138.

But it was his 138 rating that Grand Annual stats lovers would have been most interested in.

Why? Well, a massive 79% (11 of the last 14) winners of this Cheltenham Festival race came between the ratings bracket of 138-147.

Therefore, the official handicap mark of 138 for Unexpected Party saw this good-looking grey fall into the key Cheltenham stat for this race.

You can see below the last 14 winners of the Grand Annual Chase – with just three horses NOT rated between 138-147.

The only winners that didn’t tick this key horse racing trend where – Global Citizen (2022), Sky Pirate (2021) and Le Prezien (2018).

At this stage there are still 46 horses entered for the 2025 race.

But when the final declarations come out 48 hours before the race on Wednesday 12th March – you can apply this key 138-147 stat to them to whittle down the field.

Leading Grand Annual Chase Fancies Fall Down On Key Ratings Stat

The best horse racing betting sites in th UK currently have last year’s runner-up Libberty Hunter and Firefox prominent in the market.

However, with Libberty Hunter and Firefox both rated 151 – history suggests you might want to look elsewhere for the winner.

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Recent Winners (Ratings in brackets)

2024 – Unexpected Party (138 )
2023 – Maskada (142)
2022 – Global Citizen (136)
2021 – Sky Pirate (152)
2020 – Chosen Mate (147)
2019 – Croco Bay (139)
2018 – Le Prezien (150)
2017 – Rock The World (147)
2016 – Solar Impulse (140)
2015 – Next Sensation (143)
2014 – Savello (143)
2013 – Alderwood (140)
2012 – Bellvano (138)
2011 – Oiseau de Nuit (145)

WATCH: Unexpected Party Winning The 2024 Grand Annual Chase For The Skelton Team

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase 2025 Race Details

📅Date: Wednesday 12th March 2025
⌚Time: 4:40pm
🏇Racecourse: Cheltenham
🔄Trip: 2m
💷Winning Purse: £84,405
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV

Other Key 2025 Grand Annual Trends

Positive Stats

8 of the last 11 winners carried 11st or more
11 of the last 15 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
12 of the last 16 winners novices or second season chasers
12 of the last 19 winners aged between 6-8
14 of the last 21 winners were aged 8 or older
Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses have good records
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 21
17 of the last 21 winners had run at the Festival before
8 of the last 21 winners ran in the previous years renewal
The Irish have won 5 of the last 12 runnings
Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 12 placed)
13 of the last 14 winners were rated at least 138
11 of the last 14 winners were rated between 138-147
12 of the last 14 winners rated between 138-150
8 of the last 11 winners carried 11st or more
21 of the last 25 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences
5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
Novices have won 6 of the last 16 runnings
5 of the last 10 winners won after a 91+ day break

Negative Stats

Last time out winners are only 1 from last 18
Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 36 since 2005
Just 2 of the last 20 winning favourites
Only 3 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
Horses aged 10+ are only 3 wins from the last 29 runnings, but 2022 winner was a 10 year-old
Willie Mullins is yet to win the race
Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a poor recent record