Big Man Bakar’s FPL Gameweek 38 Tips: Best Captaincy Options, Differential Picks, Free Hit Draft and More

Big Man Bakar is back on SportsCasting to address the biggest dilemmas and answer the big questions ahead of Gameweek 34 in his FPL Gameweek 38 tips.

Big Man Bakar’s FPL Gameweek 38 Tips

Q) How should you chase a lead of 10 points or fewer?

I’m aware that it is the point in the season where it is make or break in most mini leagues so this calls for educated gambles to be made. I don’t think you need to be different just for the sake of being different though.

I consider a margin of 10 or fewer points to be minimal and one that can easily be made up through two or three differentials at best.

Q) How should you chase a lead of more than 10 points?

Invest in low owned differentials.

If the deficit is too huge, then ideally captain a player that your rival doesn’t own. Take the chance that he might haul big. Roll the dice!

If budget isn’t an issue, Saka could be the best attacker to buy this Gameweek – assuming that he starts. We might get a leak pre-deadline, as all games are scheduled to kick off at the same time.

While he’s not necessarily a transfer priority, he stands out as a top differential – especially for those chasing.

With some question marks over his game time, many managers will avoid him, making it highly probable that your rivals won’t own him. There’ll be plenty of speculation about his minutes against Southampton, but until Arteta gives us a clear update, it’s all guesswork.

Teams with little to play for often score more freely, and although there’s some doubt, Saka tends to start whenever he’s fit — even when there’s a big game looming. That presents a real opportunity — especially if you’re chasing.

Buying and even captaining him could be a high-upside play to chip away at the lead you’re trying to overcome, especially if it’s a big one.

, the best way to chase down a big lead is to increase the variance, so picking Saka and captaining him at a time when he is likely to be low owned is a great way of increasing the variance on the final day.

Saka is right behind Salah in the bookmaker odds for scoring or assisting, which could make him a very shrewd differential captaincy pick.

Q) How should you defend a lead effectively?

As boring as it sounds, the right answer is that you should play as template as it gets. Anticipate the effective ownerships and don’t get funky!

If you’re looking to consolidate rank, there is no reason to bet against highly owned players who could hurt your rank.

If you play “normally”, you’ll get the job done. You’ve reached this far playing in a certain way so no need to abandon it in the final week of the season.

The template is very strong – I don’t think we will get to see a major rank flux at this stage of the season without your rival having to take a big risk.

One of the very common mistakes that I see FPL managers make at the end of the season is that they look at the rivals chasing them and make decisions according to their rivals’ teams, which makes them play sub-optimally.

Do not fall into the trap!

Q) What should you do with Isak, Wood or Joao Pedro?

You should only consider selling Isak in the event that he is ruled out or leaked to miss out before the deadline.

In my opinion, he should start given what’s at stake but if he misses out, Evanilson is the standout replacement.

If you’re stuck with Isak (potentially injured), Wood, or Joao Pedro, moving to Evanilson is about as straightforward a transfer as you’ll make all season.

Bournemouth are ranked in the top five teams for xG this season, with Evanilson topping the charts among his Bournemouth team-mates for expected goal involvement.

With Leicester already down, the fixture is a gift.

He’s owned by just 4.1% — another potential differential captaincy punt that can swing mini-leagues.

Q) What should you do with Saliba?

Historically, Gameweek 38 produces more goals and fewer clean sheets than average, so using a transfer on a defender would likely be a low-upside move.

If you have a good enough defence to cover for the lack of Saliba, I’d keep him and focus my transfers on attack.

However, if you need an alternative this week, then Arsenal, Newcastle or Bournemouth are the defences I’d look at – all three stand out for clean sheet probability this week with little to separate them.

White, Schar and Kerkez stand out as the viable options.

Q) What should you do with Eze or Sarr?

There’s little appeal in holding onto Palace’s attacking options this week – they’ve got a tricky fixture at Anfield and not much left to fight for.

Fortunately, midfielders from Bournemouth are priced similarly, making it easy to shift across in a single move.

For those looking for a budget-friendly midfielder with upside, Semenyo is well worth a look.

Only Salah has taken more shots in the box among midfielders this season, highlighting his goal threat.

With Leicester already down, the fixture is a gift.

Kluivert’s minutes have been unpredictable recently, so Semenyo feels like the safer and more stable choice.

Q) What should you do with Palmer?

If you’re looking to chase a big lead, I’d sell for Saka.

That said, if you’re aiming to play it safe, I’d suggest keeping him.While the returns haven’t been there lately, Palmer is still a viable FPL asset.

Recency bias may be affecting perception, but his underlying numbers remain elite — with nearly 0.7 xGI per 90 across the season.

He was unlucky not to return last week, especially after creating a clear-cut chance for Madueke.

Chelsea still have plenty to play for, and Forest’s defensive data has worsened recently, making the fixture better than it looks on paper.

Q) Who is the best captaincy option this week?

Salah looks like the clear captain pick this week – fully secure for minutes and facing a Palace team with little to fight for.

The bookies have him as the most likely player to score or assist anytime this Gameweek, which aligns with my thinking.

Every other option this week seems to carry a degree of uncertainty.

I’m not chasing rank, so I’m happy to go with Salah – his underlying numbers are still strong despite a recent dip in output.

Q) What are the best differentials this week, fixture by fixture?

• Bourenmouth vs Leicester: Evanilson as (c), Semenyo, Kluivert, Kerkez
• Southampton vs Arsenal: White, Odegaard, Saka as (c)
• Tottenham vs Brighton: –
• Manchester United vs Aston Villa: –
• Liverpool vs Crystal Palace: Bradley
• Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea: –
• Ipswich vs West Ham: Bowen
• Wolves vs Brentford: Schade
• Fulham vs Manchester City: Haaland
• Newcastle vs Everton: Schar, Gordon

Q) Is it worth switching from triple Arsenal defence to bring in Saka?

No — that kind of squad surgery would involve too many moves and likely wouldn’t pay off enough in one week to justify the opportunity cost this late in the season.

Q) Are hits worth taking this week?

The general rule of thumb is that the later it gets in the season, the lesser the chance of a hit paying off.

A hit is only justifiable if there’s news of one of your starting assets being benched and you don’t have a suitable backup.

Q) Who is the best Assistant Manager pick this week?

It’s become quite clear that the most effective use of the Assistant Manager chip this season has been to target table bonus opportunities — they offer a higher ceiling and the potential to maximise our weekly scores.

This week, Vitor Pereira from Wolves looks like a strong candidate in that regard, especially with Brentford lacking motivation and Wolves, being at home, having a fair chance of getting a result.

Q) Best Free Hit draft for Gameweek 38?

Raya

Kerkez White Schar

Salah(c) Palmer Mbeumo Saka Semenyo

Evanilson Wissa