Horse Racing 52z2k

Does Epsom Oaks Favourite Desert Flower Fit The Key Trends and Does Her Pedigree Suggest She’ll Stay The Longer Trip? 2q5g2e

Andy Newton Sports Editor

Published22 hours ago on June 04, 2025

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We’ve the third of the English Classics this Friday as the Epsom Oaks is the focus with some of the best 3 year-old fillies on show. It’s a race that’s been dominated by trainer Aidan O’Brien over the years, with 10 overall wins – but this year the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin’s could upset the applecart with hot favourite Desert Flower.

With that in mind we look at Desert Flower’s chance in more detail and if she ticks the key Epsom Oaks trends and stats – as she puts her unbeaten record on the line.

1000 Guineas Winner Desert Flower The One To Beat In 2025 Epsom Oaks 1cb5m

The last 1000 Guineas winner to follow-up in the Epsom Oaks was Love in 2020 and before that it was Minding in 2016. Both were trained by Aidan O’Brien.

However, this year O’Brien failed to land the English 1000 Guineas – instead the spoils went to Charlie Appleby and Godolphin, who won Classic with DESERT FLOWER.

This was her fifth straight win (watch below) and also her second Group One win after landing the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket last October.

She’s had 33 days to get over her Newmarket success – and now the attention turns to the Epsom Oaks on Friday and if she’ll cope with the step up from 1m to 1m4f and also be able to handle the tricky Epsom track and keep her unbeaten run going.

WATCH: Desert Flower Winning The English 1000 Guineas 4h83r

Does Desert Flower Have The Pedigree To Stay 1m4f? 1x684d

Moving up from one mile to 1m4f will mean a 50% trip increase for Desert Flower in the Oaks – so she, along with her ers, will be stepping into the unknown.

Yes, she certainly wasn’t stopping at the end of her 1000 Guineas win over a mile – but another four furlongs at a track like Epsom, with many undulations, will be a totally different test.

With that in mind, let’s see what the Desert Flower pedigree tells us.

He’s sired by Night Of Thunder – who won the 2014 2000 Guineas over 1m and his only try beyond that trip came in the 2014 Coral-Eclipse over 1m2f.

He trailed in 8th (of 9) that day – which suggests on Desert Flower’s sire side there are big stamina question marks.

Then over to her dam – who is Promising Run, a US-bred mare, who raced 24 times (winning 6).

However, all these wins came between 7f and 1m1f.

She tried longer than 1m1f five times, including running in the 2016 British Champions Fillies’ and Mares over 1m4f, and the best she managed saw third.

There is a small glimmer of hope with her grand-sire (Night Of Thunder’s dad) being Dubawi, who was third in the 2005 Epsom Derby. But he was still beaten 8 lengths.

Of course, breeding isn’t always right, and horses can certainly pave new ways with regards to staying longer trips than their predecessors – but overall, the Desert Flower pedigree does pose some questions.

How Many Times Have Godolphin Won The Epsom Oaks? 4tn6j

Trainer Robert Robson is the leading Oaks trainer – having racked up 13 wins in the race between 1802 and 1825.

While in more recent years it’s a race Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden have dominated – more on that below.

But the Godolphin camp have only fired in three Epsom Oaks wins over the years. And none were trained by Charlie Appleby.

The first came in 1994 with Balanchine and they added to that a year later in 1995 with Moonshell – both ridden by Frankie Dettori.

But it’s worth pointing out Balanchine first ran in the famous blue colours for the first time in the Irish Derby – her first race after the Oaks. She ran in the Maktoum Al Maktoum colours at Epsom

However, their only other win in the Epsom Oaks came in 2002 with Kazzia. On a plus, just like Desert Flower will be trying to do, she also won the 1000 Guineas that season.

Therefore, Godolphin will be looking to end a 23-year run with no win in the Oaks.

Epsom Oaks Favourites Have A 26% Strike-Rate Since 2002 221kh

With Desert Flower set to go off as the 2025 Epsom Oaks favorite – we also look at the record of the market leader in recent years.

Over the last 23 runnings of the race, the Epsom Oaks trends tell us that 61% of jollies were placed – with six winning.

This equates to a fair 26% strike-rate since 2002 of winning Oaks favourites – but we’ve not seen one since 2020.

With Love in 2020 the last winning Epsom Oaks favourite.

Epsom Oaks Betting Odds and Runners 671u5k

Desert Flower 7/4
Minnie Hauk 5/1
Giselle 6/1
Whirl 15/2
Elwateen 9/1
Revoir 9/1
Qilin Queen 20/1
Wemightakedlongway 20/1
Go Go Boots 50/1

Note: Odds are subject to change

What Are The Main Epsom Oaks Trends That Desert Flower Ticks and Falls Down On? 1d41h

The big plusses based on the 2025 Epsom Oaks trends for Desert Flower are having raced in the last five weeks (100%) and winning last time out (87%).

26% of the last 23 winners also ran in the 1000 Guineas – which she did.

However, 65% of winners since 2002 had also won before over 1m2f – Desert Flower hasn’t.

While, as already mentioned, this has been a good race for Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden – but Desert Flower’s Charlie Appleby yard is still hunting their first success.

Epsom Oaks Trends and Stats 📈 6sun

23/23 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
20/23 – Placed 1^st or 2^nd in last race
19/23 – Stall 1 unplaced
15/23 – Won over at least 1m2f
14/23 – Won their last race
14/23 – Placed favourites
9/23 – Irish-trained winners
8/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
6/23 – Favourites (1 t)
6/23 – Raced in the English 1,000 Guineas
5/23 – A double-figure price
4/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/23 – Trained by John Gosden
2/23 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
1/23 – Raced over 1m4f before
0/23 – Raced at the course before
8 of the last 18 favourites were unplaced
8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 9 times
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 11 runnings
O’Brien and Gosden have won 10 of the last 11 runnings between them
The average winning SP in the last 23 runnings is 10/1
8 past Oaks winners won the Musidora at York earlier that season
Love (2020), Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 8 of the last 23 runnings

Trainers John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien Have Won 10 Of The Last 11 Epsom Oaks Between Them 416761

John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien Have A Top Record In The Epsom Oaks

If you simply want to back a horse in the Epsom Oaks who comes from a yard that know how to win the race – look no further than Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden.

Heading into Epsom weekend – the how many times has Aidan O’Brien won the Epsom Derby question always comes out. With the answer, the same has how many Epsom Oaks winners he’s had – ten in both races.

Yes, O’Brien needs just four more Oaks wins to be the winning-most trainer – with his first coming with Shantoush in 1998 and his most recent Tuesday in 2022.

Like the Ballydoyle man, John Gosden has done well in the Oaks in recent years – winning the prize four times since 2014.

All this means that remarkably between them Gosden and O’Brien have won the Epsom Oaks in 10 of the last 11 years.

Both have runners again in 2025

John Gosden and O’Brien Epsom Oaks Runners 15281m

Minnie Hauk (O’Brien)
Giselle (O’Brien)
Whirl (O’Brien)
Go Go Boots (Gosden)

Epsom Oaks Race Time and Details 2025 51w5k

📅Date: Saturday 6th June 2025
⌚Time: 3:30pm
🏇Racecourse: Epsom Downs
💷Winner: £850,650
📺 TV: ITV/RTV (ITV Racing schedule)

Epsom Oaks Winners (Last 10 Years) 5p5j60

2024 – Ezeliya (13/2)
2023 – Soul Sister (11/4)
2022 – Tuesday (13/2)
2021 – Snowfall (11/2)
2020 – Love (11/10 fav)
2019 – Anapurna (8/1)
2018 – Forever Together (7/1)
2017 – Enable (6/1)
2016 – Minding (10/11 fav)
2015 – Qualify (50/1)