Horse Racing
Chester Cup Trends 2025 Suggest Taking On The Roodee Favourite
Andy is a horse racing journalist and betting expert who specializes in trends and stats. With his long association with TrainersQuotes and FromTheStables, Andy has also built up solid s with some of the best stables in the UK. Has written for GeeGeez and bookmakers Matchbook and BetBright in the past too, plus was the former sports betting editor of odds comparison site Easyodds and Juicestorm. Has also appeared on betting podcasts for MatchBook and has featured in the popular Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Guide in the past. Andy's also ghost written for former top jockey Richard Dunwoody and continues to have a monthly column in the Racing Ahead horse racing magazine. Now a regular on Sportscasting giving his views, trends and tips mainly on horse racing - if there's a stat to be explored and it's a sport, Andy is sure to find a betting angle to use. You can also hear Andy's weekly horse racing views and best bets on the popular Final Furlong podcast.
Get to know Andy Newton betterPublished09 May 2025
You can use our Chester Cup trends and stats ahead of this week’s big handicap on the Roodee – apply these to the final runners to help put history on your side and find the best horse profiles based on past winners.
Chester Cup Trends Tell Us The Favourites Have A Poor Record
The first of the key Chester Cup trends to be aware of is that this race has not been the best for favourites.
In, fact there have only been FOUR winning Chester Cup market leaders since 1975 – wow.
Yes, we’ve seen two in the last 22 runnings, but there hasn’t been a winning Chester Cup favourite in the last ten years again.
Last year’s jolly was the Andrew Balding-trained Aztec Empire, who was only fourth. While 50% of the last 22 market leaders have also finished unplaced.
The last winning Chester Cup favourite was Mamlook in 2010 – and there’s been only one since 2005.
Therefore, as the Friday race draws closer it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on which horse is being backed into the top slot in the betting as in the punters vs bookies battle it’s certainly been the layers that have held sway.
At this stage the likely Chester Cup favourite is the Triumph Hurdle third East India Dock, for trainer James Fanshawe, who has never won the Chester Cup.
With the Ryan Moore-ridden Leinster also high up in the betting.
Chester Cup Trends To Help Find The 2025 Winner
- 20/22 – Aged 7 years-old or younger
- 15/22 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
- 15/22 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
- 15/22 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-olds
- 15/22 – Rated between 93-99
- 15/22 – Unplaced last time out
- 14/22 – Ran within the last 2 months
- 13/22 – Won before over at least 2m on the flat
- 13/22 – Won from stall 7 or lower
- 11/22 – Unplaced favourites
- 11/22 – Irish bred
- 4/22 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
- 3/22 – Won at Chester before
- 3/22 – Won their last race
- 2/22 – Trained by Donald McCain
- 2/22– Trained by Richard Fahey
- 2/22 – Trained by Ian Williams
- 2/22 – Favourites
- 2/22 – Irish-trained winners
- Average winning SP in the last 22 years is 11/1
Chester Cup Stats
- Three repeat winners since 1997
- Only 4 winning favourites since 1975
- The Hills stable took the race in 1980, 1999, 2001 and 2009
- All winners have been aged 8 or younger since 1890
- Since 1975 there have only been 4 winners aged 8 years-old
- Since 1981 just 8 winners have carried more than 9-2 to victory (but 6 of the last 7 have won with 9st +)
- 4 of the last 14 winners came from NH yards (jumping)
- 8 of the last 11 winners carried 9st or more
- 13 of the last 17 winners carried between 8-11 and 9-4
- 3 of the last 12 winners priced 10/1 in the betting
- Jockeys Ryan Moore, Jim Crowley and Jamie Spencer have won the race twice each since 2008
Zoffee Looking To Become The First ‘Back-to-Back’ Chester Cup Winner Since Anak Pekan
12 months ago, we saw the Hugo Palmer-trained Zoffee cement his name on the Chester Cup ‘hall-of-fame’ and he’s expected to be back for more.
The good news is the Chester Cup has been a fair race for returning horses – with Anak Pekan winning the prize in consecutive seasons in 2004 and 2005.
While before him, we saw Rainbow High win in 1999 and 2001 – plus Top Cees took the race in 1995 and 1997.
Zoffee will be back rated just a pound higher (91) than last year but connections have already booked the useful claiming jockey Joe Leavy to take off 3lbs.
All this means the horse is actually running off a 2lb lower mark than in 2024.
WATCH: Zoffee Winning The 2024 Chester Cup
Ignore Chester Cup Horses Aged 8 Or Older
The next Chester Cup trend to look for is age.
Yes, last year we saw the 8 year-old Zoffee win – but really the stats tell us to look for horses aged 7 or younger.
This is backed up with 16 of the last 22 winners aged 4 or 5, plus since 1890 ALL winners have been aged 8 or younger and only four aged 8.
In short, since 1986 – only two winners have been older than 7.
This would, therefore, be a big stat against last year’s winner Zoffee, who is now 9 years-old – as, don’t forget – EVERY horse since 1890 has been aged 8 or younger.
Chester Cup Runners Aged 8+
- Zoffee (9)
- Dawn Rising (8)
- Emiyn (8)
- Bashful Boy (9)
76% Of The Last 17 Chester Cup Winners Carried Between 8-11 and 9-4
Being a handicap then weight carried is also one of the Chester Cup trends to look out for as a massive 13 of the last 17 winners carried between 8-11 and 9-4.
Plus, since 1981 only eight winners have carried more than 9-2 to victory – but it’s worth noting that two of these were since 2017.
While 5 of the last 7 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-6.
The final Chester Cup runners are out on Wednesday 7th May, so you can apply this weight trend to the race then.
- Zoffee (8-11)
- Charging Thunder (8-12)
- Hot Fuzz (8-12)
- Who’s Glen (8-12)
- Duke Of Oxford (9-2)
Are There Any Chester Cup Draw Stats To Look For?
Despite being run over 2m 2 1/2f – the draw is still worth a look as Chester is a tight track and then over any trip being drawn low can help to save ground.
Last year’s winner Zoffee backed this up coming from stall 1.
However, despite 13 of the last 22 winners coming from stall 7 or lower in more recent times this stat has been defied – as 4 of the last 5 winners came from a double-figure stall.
Therefore, I’d say the current Chester Cup draw stat has to be taken with a pinch of salt and you shouldn’t be put off if your fancy is drawn higher – as in the last 10 years we’ve had winners ranging from stall 1 to gate 16.
We’ll know the Chester Cup draw on Wednesday 7th May.
Chester Cup Race Details
📅Date: Friday 9th May 2025
⌚Time: 3:05pm
🏇Racecourse: Chester
🔄Trip: 2m 2 1/2f
💷Winner: £86,632
📺 TV: ITV4/RTV
Chester Cup Winners (Last 10 Years)
- 2024 – Zoffee (9/1)
- 2023 – Metier (5/1)
- 2022 – Cleveland (6/1)
- 2021 – Falcon Eight (15/2)
- 2020 – No Race
- 2019 – Making Miracles (16/1)
- 2018 – Magic Circle (8/1)
- 2017 – Montaly (16/1)
- 2016 – No Heretic (11/1)
- 2015 – Trip To Paris (10/1)
- 2014 – Suegioo (10/1)