Can Grand National Fancies Iroko and Intense Raffles Defy HUGE 99% Stat That Stretches Back Over 80 Years?

Heading into the 2025 Grand National, two of the big fancies – IROKO and INTENSE RAFFLES – are being tipped up by many punters to cement their name into the Aintree history books.

However, if one of them is to be successful – they will need to overcome a monster 99% Grand National stat that stretches back to 1941 – which is 83 years.

Only ONE Horse Aged 7 Has Won The Grand National Since 1941

In 2022, the Emmet Mullins-trained Noble Yeats won the Grand National as a 7 year-old – breaking a run with no winner that young since 1940.

However, prior to that win – Grand National stat fans will tell you the last winner aged 7 was a horse called Bogskar in 1940.

Meaning since 1941 there is an 83-year period with just ONE Grand National winner being aged 7.

Over this time (1941 to 2024), with Covid, a void race and the Second World War – there have been 77 runnings of the National.

Which, therefore, equates to a 99% strike-rate of winners aged 8 or older.

Prior to Bogskar’s win in 1940 – for those wanting to dismiss this 7 year-old stat – there were actually three in-a-row winning between 1932 and 1934 – including the mighty Golden Miller.

That said, the fact remains since 1940 – the Grand National has only produced TWO winning 7 year-olds.

Still fancy hot Grand National favourites – Iroko and Intense Raffles?

Grand National 7 Year-Old Winners Since 1940

Grand National Favourites Iroko and Intense Raffles Are BOTH Aged 7

 

So, if you are still coming down on Iroko and Intense Raffles as your 2025 Grand National fancies – you will certainly have to factor in this massive 99% stat that goes right back to 1941.

Of course, some will ask how many actual 7 year-olds have run in the race since 1940?

And to be honest, I’m not sure and I’m also not going to go back over 80+ years of results to find out.

But what I have done is go back over the last 10 runnings and this will give us a fair picture.

In total, there have been 26 horses aged 7 to have run in the Grand National since 2014 – with just one winner (4%).

Grand National 7 Year-Olds To Have Run Since 2014 (26)

Some Grand National Fans Are Suggesting The Race Is Now Easier – Giving Younger Horses A Better Chance

In recent years, there have been many changes to the Grand National.

Including less runners (34) now, but the most significant being the alternation of a lot of the fences.

Which has led many to believe the once-gruelling test – is nowhere near as hard as it used to be.

This will also point to the younger horses in the race having a better chance – with less emphasis on jumping, stamina and experience.

Maybe this was why Noble Yeats defied the huge 7 year Grand National stat in 2022 – he’d also only seven times over fences before winning and had just the one previous chase success.

7 Year-Old Gaillard Du Mesnil Came Close (3rd) In 2023

But since Noble Yeat’s win in 2022 – eleven more 7 year-old horses have tried in 2023 and 2024 – they’ve all come up short.

With the Willie Mullins-trained Gaillard Du Mesnil doing best when taking the bronze in a few years back.

Oh, and only last year in 2024 we saw another JP McManus-owned 7 year-old in Limerick Lace ran.

She was also sent off as the Grand National t-favourite with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK despite this huge stat – but only finished 10th.

Why Have 7 Year-olds Struggled In The Grand National?

 

In short, the Grand National is run over 4m 2 1/2f and is still one of the most demanding horse races in the world – that also requires the winner to tackle 30 unique fences.

Yes, they’ve been modified in recent years – but are still totally different to what a lot of these horses are used to jumping week-in-week-out.

The race can also sometimes be run on testing (soft) ground – which means having proven stamina is a big plus and in general this staying power tends to come with age with National Hunt horses.

There are also a maximum of 34 Grand National runners each year, so it’s a race that will require plenty of luck and experience to guide through any trouble or loose horses.

Which is again something that comes with age and with more races run.

Intense Raffles Horse Profile

Intense Raffles is also a Grand National grey horse – he’ll be looking to become only the fourth ‘silver fox’ winner of the Aintree race.

WATCH: Intense Raffles Running Second In The Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse

Iroko Horse Profile

WATCH: Iroko Running Second In The Premier Chase at Kelso

Other Possible 2025 Grand National Runners Aged 7

WATCH: Noble Yeats In 2022 – The First Winning Grand National Horse Aged 7 Since 1940

What Has Been The Best Grand National-Winning Age In The Last 10 Runnings?

So, we know that the Grand National has only produced two winning 7 year-olds since 1940 – what has been the best age?

During 2010 and 2014 we had a good run for the old-timers – with all of these five winners aged in double-figures.

However, since the 11 year-old Pineau De Re won in 2014 – ALL the Grand National winners have been aged between 7-9.

With the 8 and 9 year-0lds having the best records – winning 80% of the last 10 runnings.

While 22 of the last 30 winners (73%) have been aged between 8-10 years-old.

The oldest Grand National winner was Peter Simple aged 15 in 1853.

The youngest winners were Alcibiade (1865), Regal (1876), Austerlitz (1877), Empress (1880) and Lutteur III (1909) – who were all aged 5.

The Last 10 Grand National Winners and Their Ages

Aintree Grand National 2025 Race Details

📅Date: Saturday 5th April 2025
⌚Time: 4:00pm
🏇Racecourse: Aintree
🔄Trip: 4m 2 1/2f
💷Winner: £500,000
📺 TV: ITV Racing / Racing TV