Horse Racing

What Is The 18-Year-Old Arkle Novices’ Chase Trend AGAINST Majborough?

Andy Newton Sports Editor

Published10 Mar 2025

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One of the highlights on day one of the Cheltenham Festival is the Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase as horse racing fans get to see some of the potential future stars strutting their stuff.

One of these possible superstars in the making is the Willie Mullins-trained 5 year-old Majborough. However, if he is to win – he’ll have to defy one of the Arkle Novices’ Chase trends that dates back to 2006.

You can also see Andy Newton’s best Cheltenham bets and hot stats for ALL the DAY ONE Festival races.

The Last Winning Arkle Novices’ Chase 5 Year-Old Was In 2006

One of the key Arkle Novices’ Chase trends tells us that horses aged 5 (Majborough’s age) haven’t won this Grade One Chase for 18 years.

Okay, there hasn’t been stacks of 5 year-old over this period – but there has still been 16 losing horses and some beaten favourites with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK too.

Riviere D’Etel and Haut En Couleurs were both well-fancied in 2022 but finished unplaced.

While Allmankind (2021), Fakir d’ Oudairies (2020), Saint Calvados (2018) and Tatenen (2009) were other big name 5 year-olds coming into the race to lose.

In short, you have to go back to 2006 to find the last 5 year-old to win the Arkle Novices’ Chase – Voy Por Ustedes, who was trained by Alan King.

The Arkle Chase Trends Tell Us – Since 1958 We’ve Only Had SIX Winning 5 Year-olds

Prior to 2006, the classy Well Chief flew the flag for the youngsters in 2004 – while the only other winning 5 year-olds since 1971 were Champleve (1998) and Flagship Uberalles (1999.

Since 1958 – there have been only SIX winning 5 year-old winners of the Arkle Novices’ Chase.

Therefore, despite being one of the big 2025 Cheltenham Festival bankers, those against Majborough might be happy knowing this key Arkle Novices’ Chase trend.

The 16 Arkle Novices’ Chase 5 Year-Olds To ALL Lose Since 2007

2024 – No 5 year-olds
2023 – No 5 year-olds
2022 – Riviere D’Etel (5th) Haut En Couleurs (6th), Saint Sam (UR)
2021 – Allmankind (4th)
2020 – Fakir d’Oudairies (2nd)
2019 – No 5 year-olds
2018 – Saint Calvados (4th)
2017 – No 5 year-olds
2016 – No 5 year-olds
2015 – Clarcam (8th)
2014 – No 5 year-olds
2013 – His Excellency (3rd)
2012 – No 5 year-olds
2011 – No 5 year-olds
2010 – No 5 year-olds
2009 – Tatenen (F)
2008 – Kruguyrova (2nd), Marodima (9th)
2007 – Fair Along (2nd), Jack The Giant (3rd), Good Spirit (8th), Tidal Fury (9th), Twist Magic (F)

16 Of The Last 18 (89%) Arkle Novices’ Chase Winners Were Aged 6 or 7 years-old

So, what is the best age of recent Arkle Novices’ Chase winners?

Step forward horses aged 6 or 7, who has been responsible for 89% of the last 18 winners – including last year’s hero 6 year-old hero Gaelic Warrior.

The only two horses that defied this age Arkle Novices’ Chase trend since 2007 were Edwardstone and Sizing Europe – who both took the prize as 8 year-olds.

Arkle Novices’ Chase 2025 Race Details

📅Date: Tuesday 11th March 2025
⌚Time: 2:00pm
🏇Racecourse: Cheltenham
🔄Trip: 2m
💷Winning Purse: £112,540
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV

See the full 2025 Cheltenham Festival running order and race times here

On A Plus For Majborough Wille Mullins Has Won SIX Of The Last 10 Runnings

Of course, horse racing trends are certainly not the holy grail in finding the winner all the time – but they can help build up a picture of what has happened in recent years.

In contrast to the key Arkle Novices’ Chase trend regarding the age that Majborough needs to overcome – the good news for his backers is there are many other positive stats for him.

One of these is simply being trained by Willie Mullins.

Mullins is the winning-most Cheltenham Festival trainer with 103 winners heading into 2025 and he’s also got a top Arkle record.

The Closutton handler has mopped up the last two runnings with Gaelic Warrior and El Fabiolo, plus has won six of the last 10 overall.

8 Of The Last 10 Arkle Novices’ Chase Favourites Have Also Won

Another plus for Majborough is that the Cheltenham Festival favourites in the Arkle Novices’ Chase have a terrific record.

The last four market leaders have ALL won, while 80% of the last 10 jollies have also entered the winners’ enclosure.

WATCH: Majborough Winning The Irish Arkle At Leopardstown

Other Key Arkle Novices’ Chase Trends 2025

15 of the last 19 won at least twice over fences
16 of the last 18 aged 6 or 7 years-old
15 of the last 20 winners won (or been placed) at Cheltenham previously
19 of the last 25 winners won a Grade 1 or 2 chase
14 of the last 15 winners won their last race (plus 18 of the last 23)
23 of the last 25 9/1 or shorter
16 of the last 22 raced 3 or 4 times over fences
15 of the last 21 raced at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
9 of the last 13 unbeaten over fences
Nicky Henderson has 7 wins
Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 10 runnings
10 of the last 13 trained by Willie Mullins (6) or Nicky Henderson (4)
10 of the last 13 favourites won

Majborough Looking To Give JP McManus His First Arkle Chase Win

What Is The 18-Year-Old Arkle Novices' Chase Trend AGAINST Majborough?

There are also just FIVE Cheltenham Festival races that top owner JP McManus is yet to win – one of which is the Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase.

He’s gone close in recent years with Fakir d’Oudairies (2nd, 2020) and Jonbon (2nd, 2023) – but to date, this has been one of the few Cheltenham Festival races that’s eluded the famous green and gold silks.

Majborough will be hoping to become his first on day one of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival.

The horse will also be looking for another first. He landed the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival last season and no horse has EVER won that race and the Arkle – ever.

Recent Arkle Novices’ Chase Winners

2024 – Gaelic Warrior (2/1 fav)
2023 – El Fabolio (11/10 fav)
2022 – Edwardstone (5/2 fav)
2021 – Shishkin (4/9 fav)
2020 – Put The Kettle On (16/1)
2019 – Duc Des Genievres (5/1)
2018 – Footpad (5/6 fav)
2017 – Altior (1/4 fav)
2016 – Douvan (1/4 fav)
2015 – Un De Sceaux (4/6 fav)