ANDY NEWTON’s Best Cheltenham Bets and Hot Stats For Day 1: Can Constitution Hill Regain His Crown?

Sportscasting’s Andy Newton is on hand throughout the Festival with his quickfire best Cheltenham bets on day 1 and hot stats for ALL 28 races – starting on Tuesday (11th March), where all eyes will be on Constitution Hill as he looks to regain his 2023 Champion Hurdle crown.

Best Cheltenham Bets On Day 1: Tuesday 11th March – Can Constitution Hill Regain His Champion Hurdle Crown?

1:20 Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

🥇KOPEK DES BORDES
🥈ROMEO COOLIO
🥉WILLIAM MUNNY

Willie Mullins gained his first ever Cheltenham Festival winner in this race back in 1995 and has gone onto fire in 102 more at the meeting in total. He’s expected to add to that tally by taking the 2025 curtain raiser for an eighth time with impressive Dublin Racing Festival scorer Kopek Des Bordes.

This 5 year-old brushed up his jumping the last day after winning over Christmas, but looking sketchy over his hurdlers, and looks another high-class horse to come out of Closutton that can go to the very top.

Those against Kopek might cling to a Supreme Novices’ trend that has only seen two winning outright favourites since 2005. While it’s also been reported that the Mullins horse will sport the first time hood. This is due to the horse being a bit buzzing before his races in the past.

However, the Mullins record at the Festival in first-time headgear is just 1-33 (6 placed). That said, Kopeck is still expected to take the day one opener.

2024 Champion Bumper runner-up Romeo Coolio can follow him home, with recent Punchestown scorer William Munny the one for the tricast. Of the rest, I’d not be shocked if the exciting Fergal O’Brien-trained Tripoli Flyer outrun his odds – but is likely to find the Irish challenge too much.

📈Hot Stats:
– Just two outright winning favourites since 2005
– 5 and 6 year-olds have won 15 of the last 16
– Just 1 winner returned bigger than 10/1 in the last 14
– Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times

2:00 Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase

🥇MAJBOROUGH
🥈L’EAU DU SUD
🥉JANGO BAIE

This can be another winner for Willie Mullins, with Majborough rated by many as another of the main best horse racing betting sites in the UK.

He landed the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival 12 months ago and has since made a smooth transition to fences – winning at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown. His task has been made easier with no Sir Gino and despite L’Eau du Sud and Jango Baie looking fair challengers, this 5 year-old can give top Irish owner JP McManus his first ever success in the Arkle.

Those against him might look to the 5 year-old Arkle trend that hasn’t seen a winner since 2007.

However, in a renewal that lacks depth he’s taken to kick this stat into touch and rates one of the most solid Cheltenham best bets on day 1.

📈Hot Stats:
– 5 year-olds are 0-16 since 2007
– No horse has ever won the Triumph Hurdle and Arkle Novices’ Chase at the Festival
– 14 of the last 15 winners won their last race
– 16 of the last 22 winners had won run 3 or 4 times over fences

2:40 Ultima Handicap Chase Premier Handicap

🥇WHISTLE STOP TOUR
🥈THE CHANGING MAN
🥉MALINA GIRL

Many chances here but despite the competitive nature of the race 71% of the last 24 winners have come from the top 4 in the market. Headgear is another plus, as is looking for horses rated 143 or less.

With this in mind the Lucinda Russell-trained Whistle Stop Tour catches the eye, from the yard that won this twice with Grand National winner Corach Rambler twice in recent years. This 7 year-old gets in with a nice low weight and gained valuable track experience last time, albeit on the new course, on Trial Day.

Yes, only 5th that day, but it came over 2m 4f and will be much more at home over this longer trip, having won twice over 3m this term. Quicker ground is fine too and with just four career runs over fences will have more to come.

Consistent The Changing Man finally broke his duck over fences last time at Ascot in the Reynoldstown and has only been hiked 2lbs. He looks sure to go well too.

While despite the Irish having a dire record in this race – Malina Girl for Gavin Cromwell is feared too with her course record 3-1-F (was going well) nothing to be sniffed at.

📈Hot Stats:
– 17 of the last 24 came from the top 4 in the betting
– 19 of the last 25 winners rated 143 or less
– 10 of the last 13 winners wore headgear
– Willie Mullins has never won the race and the Irish are currently 0-46 (last 18 runnings)

3:20 Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle

🥇LOSSIEMOUTH
🥈JULY FLOWER
🥉JADE DE GRUGY

No trainer has won the Mares’ Hurdle more times than a certain Willie Mullins (10 wins) and he’s taken to make that 11 here now he’s re-routed last year’s winner Lossiemouth to the race.

His talented grey had been expected to line-up in the Champion Hurdle on day one. However, connections have decided to opt for the easier option running against her own sex.

To me, she looks a better horse over this 2m4f trip anyway.

While, even though it’s not ideal coming here off a fall at Leopardstown last time out, is still very much the one to beat.

Mullins also has Jade De Grugy in the race should Lossiemouth flop.

She was 4th in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle here last season but has progressed over this longer trip. Including winning the Grade One Honeysuckle Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Fairyhouse last year and returned with a facile success at Punchestown last month.

However, July Flower looks best of the rest.

She clocked a fast time when winning last time at Leopardstown and the De Bromhead yard have a good record in the race too.

While Betfair Hurdle winner Joyuese (supplemented) is on the up and will be looking to give JP McManus a first win in the race.

📈Hot Stats:
– 15 of the last 17 winners had won taking on geldings (12 in G1/ G2 company)
– Ireland have trained 14 of the last 17 winners (10 Willie Mullins)
– Just 2 winning outright favourites in the last 10 runnings
– 13 of the last 17 winners won last time out

4:00 Champion Hurdle

🥇CONSTITUTION HILL
🥈BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD
🥉STATE MAN

With top mare Brighterdaysahead opting to take on Constitution Hill this will now be one of the races of the Festival – well, let’s hope so.

It’s just a small shame Lossiemouth will run in the Mares’ Hurdle now.

BDA will get the 7lb mares’ allowance and based on her wins this season will have serious claims. However, let’s not forget she will be taking on the 2023 winner and a horse that is yet to lose a race from his 10 career starts.

Yes, Brighterdaysahead has progressed well this season to beat State Man twice – but one of those the 2024 Champion Hurdler was clearly below-par, while the other he only got the better of him by 3/4.

Let’s Constitution Hill thumped State Man by 9 lengths in his 2023 CH win.

Constitution Hill has returned from his year out in wining form this season – taking the Christmas Hurdle yet again and didn’t get out of third gear in the Unibet Hurdle.

He showed his wellbeing when beating Lossiemouth this season, while the worry for me over Brighterdaysahead is that she lost at this meeting last year as a big fancy. Plus also has a big Champion Hurdle trend to overcome – which is 20 of the last 24 winners had raced within the last 60 days.

I’m making Constitution Hill one of my best Cheltenham bets on day 1. BDA can follow the champ in with last year’s hero State Man a distance third.

📈Hot Stats:
– 20 of the 24 winners had raced in the last 60 days
– 35 of the last 41 winners won last time out
– 7 of the last 16 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle
– Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 9 times 

4:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

🥇TOTAL LOOK
🥈BEYOND YOUR DREAMS
🥉STENCIL

Strangely this has been a poor race for Willie Mullins – he’s yet to win it, so his runners are overlooked.

But the Irish has still won the last seven and I think they can again – this time with the Gavin Cromwell-trained Total Look.

This 4 year-old ran a funny race last time at Punchestown – falling back and then staying on again to almost win the race. It was reported the horse lost a shoe and was coughing after, which is a small worry. But he sports the first-time cheekpieces here to help.

However, he’s been given 43 days off and it’s also worth pointing out he was carrying 12-1 in that last race. He’s also won on good ground on the flat and yeilding at Navan in November, so I expect the better surface to also suit.

Of the rest, the JP McManus camp look to have a strong hand too and their filly Beyond Your Dreams looks interesting for last year’s winning trainer Joseph O’Brien.

As does Stencil, who ran second to the Triumph Hurdle favourite East India Dock on Trials Day. A repeat of that run will make him hard to keep out of the finish.

📈Hot Stats:
– Willie Mullins is yet to win the race , but the Irish have won the last seven
– Just 3 winners last raced in January or further back
– 11 of the last 20 winners had exactly 3 runs over hurdles
– 10 of the last 14 came from the bottom half of the weights

5:20 National Hunt Challenge Novices’ Handicap Chase

🥇TRANSMISSION
🥈HAITI COULEURS
🥉CAPTAIN CODY

Haiti Couleurs beat Transmission by 2 2/4 lengths here at the December Meeting, but there is a 4lb weight pull in favour of the Neil Mulholland runner this time and that can be enough to turn the tables.

This 8 year-old has since been kept ticking over with run in the Cleeve Hurdle on Trials Day – to protect his mark – and has an overall track record over fences of 2-1-2 this season.

Of the rest, the main Irish challenge will come from Now Is The Hour for the Cromwell team and the Willie Mullins entry Captain Cody, who were 4th and 3rd respectively in a Beginners Chase at Navan last time out.

📈Hot Stats:
– Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 13 runnings
– 10 of the last 14 winners Irish trained
– 14 of the last 19 winners aged 7 or 8
– 11 of the last 14 winners returned a single-figure price

GOOD LUCK 🤞