Horse Racing
BIG Champion Chase Trend That Favours Gaelic Warrior In Cheltenham Festival Day Two Feature
Andy is a horse racing journalist and betting expert who specializes in trends and stats. With his long association with TrainersQuotes and FromTheStables, Andy has also built up solid s with some of the best stables in the UK. Has written for GeeGeez and bookmakers Matchbook and BetBright in the past too, plus was the former sports betting editor of odds comparison site Easyodds and Juicestorm. Has also appeared on betting podcasts for MatchBook and has featured in the popular Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Guide in the past. Andy's also ghost written for former top jockey Richard Dunwoody and continues to have a monthly column in the Racing Ahead horse racing magazine. Now a regular on Sportscasting giving his views, trends and tips mainly on horse racing - if there's a stat to be explored and it's a sport, Andy is sure to find a betting angle to use. You can also hear Andy's weekly horse racing views and best bets on the popular Final Furlong podcast.
Get to know Andy Newton betterPublished28 Feb 2025
There are many Queen Mother Champion Chase trends to look out for ahead of the big Cheltenham Festival day two feature – we list them all below. However, if you are a fan of Gaelic Warrior, you’ll be pleased to hear one of these key stats gives him a leading chance of turning over the hot favourite Jonbon.
50% Of The Last 14 Arkle Chase Winners Have Won The Champion Chase
The Willie Mullins-trained Gaelic Warrior is a horse that divides horse racing fans.
He’s clearly top drawer when on song, but as we’ve found out a few times at the Dublin Racing Festival – he can also spit the dummy out and run below par.
Something he did last time out in the Dublin Chase at Leopardstown, when a well-beaten 6/4 favourite with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK.
However, there are still many Gaelic Warrior lovers out there that are keeping the faith with the Rich Ricci-owned 7 year-old – with a lot feeling the return to the Cheltenham Festival, and the scene of his last win, will spark him back to form.
This is because his best career run came in the Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase 12 months ago (watch below) – when seeing off Found A Fifty by an easy 8 1/2 lengths.
The further good news for his loyal GW fans is that one of the key Champion Chase trends revolves around the Arkle Novices’ Chase – which has seen winners of that contest perform well the following season in this day two Festival feature.
In fact, a massive 50% of the last 14 Arkle Novices’ Chase winners from the previous season to run in the Champion Chase have won.
Which is also a key stat for anyone looking for something to take on the hot Cheltenham favourite in the race – Jonbon.
Oh, ‘spoiler alert’ – there is also another HUGE Champion Chase trend against Jonbon below.
Recent Arkle Novices’ Chase Winners To Have Also Won The Champion Chase
See below the recent horses to win both the Arkle Novices’ Chase and Champion Chase – with their winning years in brackets (Arkle first).
- Put The Kettle On – 2020 and 2021
- Altior – 2017 and 2018
- Sprinter Sacre – 2012 and 2013
- Sizing Europe – 2010 and 2011
- Voy Por Ustedes – 2006 and 2007
- Azertyuiop – 2003 and 2004
- Moscow Flyer – 2002 and 2003
The Champion Chase Trends Also Tell Us That SIX of The Last Seven Odds-On Favourites Have LOST
If you are still looking to take on Jonbon, who is hovering around the odds-on mark with the best betting sites in the UK – there is another huge Champion Chase trend you might like to hear.
This race has been a graveyard for odds-on favourites in recent years – with SIX of the last seven horses to be sent off odds-on LOSING.
At the moment, it depends who you shop with, but Jonbon is a shade odds-on with some firms and if there a stack of the JP McManus-owned chaser will shorten further.
The only winning odds-on favourite in the race since 2016 to win was Altior in 2019 (1st 4/11) – see below the six that have failed.
Oh – despite having many top chasers over the years – did you also know, JP has NEVER won the Champion Chase.
Champion Chase Odds-On Favourites To Lose
- 2024 – El Fabiolo (PU 2/9 fav)
- 2022 – Shishkin (PU 5/6 fav)
- 2021 – Chacun Pour Soi (3rd 8/13 fav)
- 2020 – Defi Du Seuil (4th 2/5 fav)
- 2017 – Douvan (7th 2/9 fav)
- 2016 – Un De Sceaux (2nd 4/6 fav)
14 Of The Last 24 Champion Chase Winners Had Won At The Cheltenham Festival Before
The next Champion Chase trend again Jonbon is that 58% of the last 24 winners were also previous victors at the Festival.
Which is something the likes of Gaelic Warrior, Marine Nationale and Energumene can boast – but not Jonbon.
Jonbon has run at the meeting twice before when runner up to Constitution Hill in the 2022 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and taking silver again in the 2023 Arkle Novices’ Chase.
Nicky Henderson Looking To Become The All-Time Champion Chase Winning Trainer
Despite all these Champion Chase trends against Jonbon, on his form this season – he’s still very much the one to beat.
He’s won a remarkable 12 of his 14 career chase starts and is probably a horse that is not getting the full credit he deserves – a win in the Champion Chase will surely help that.
Jonbon has also taken his career winnings to over £1m (£1,113,787) this season after three more wins – the last coming in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot, when seeing off the two-time Champion Chase winner Energumene (watch below).
This 9 year-old will also be hoping to make trainer Nicky Henderson the all-time winner in the Champion Chase. He’s currently tied with Paul Nicholls and Tom Dreaper – all with six wins.
Nicky Henderson’s Champion Chase Wins
- Remittance Man (1992)
- Finian’s Rainbow (2012)
- Sprinter Sacre (2013, 2016)
- Altior (2018, 2019)
Queen Mother Champion Chase 2025 Race Details
📅Date: Wednesday 12th March 2025
⌚Time: 4:00pm
🏇Racecourse: Cheltenham
🔄Trip: 2m
💷Winning Purse: £225,080
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV
See the full 2025 Cheltenham Festival running order and race times here
Other Key Champion Chase Trends 2025
- 6 of the last 7 odds-on favourites have lost (over last 9 years)
- 13 of the last 24 winners contested the Tingle Creek Chase that season
- 4 of the last 12 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
- 25 of the last 40 had won at the Festival in the past
- Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 13 (6 in total)
- 30 of the last 38 winners were aged between 7-9
- 17 of the last 25 winners 5/1 or shorter
- 17 of the last 19 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
- 22 of the last 26 winners came from the top 3 in the market
- 14 of the last 23 winners won their last race
- 14 of the last 19 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
- 41 of the last 43 winners 10/1 or shorter
- 18 of the last 25 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
- 7 of the last 14 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
- Willie Mullins, has just 2 wins in the race (Energumene 2022 & 2023
- Horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 197
- Dublin Chase winners are currently 0-from-5 (Solness, 2025
- Only one 11 year-old winner in the last 46 year
Recent Champion Chase Winners
- 2024 – Captain Guinness (17/2)
- 2023 – Energumene (6/5 fav)
- 2022 – Energumene (5/2)
- 2021 – Put The Kettle On (17/2)
- 2020 – Politologue (6/1)
- 2019 – Altior (4/11 fav)
- 2018 – Altior (Evs fav)
- 2017 – Special Tiara (11/1)
- 2016 – Sprinter Sacre (5/1)
- 2015 – Dodging Bullets (9/2)