The 2025 NBA Finals are officially set, as the Oklahoma City Thunder will face off against the Indiana Pacers. While their two star guards — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton — are the headliners of this matchup, a great performance from either one of them will not guarantee victory for their team.
To secure their first NBA titles, both Gilgeous-Alexander and Haliburton will need some help from their teammates, particularly from a very special type of teammate.
There are players whose performance means a little bit more to the ultimate result than the rest. It’s not necessarily because they are the best player, but rather because their team is in dire need of what they offer and there are more question marks around the consistency of their performance.
These are known as “X factors.” On the right night, they increase their team’s win probability exponentially. Yet on the wrong one, they leave their team scrambling.
With the start of the series nearly upon us, I thought it would be wise to highlight the biggest X factor for each team.
Aaron Nesmith
Although he didn’t crack my top-five role players for the 2025 NBA Playoffs, Aaron Nesmith has had a heck of a postseason. Through 16 games, he’s averaging 14 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocks while shooting 50 percent from three.
Against the New York Knicks, Nesmith basically single-handedly helped steal Game 1 by letting Reggie Miller’s spirit overtake his body (8-of-9 from three, including six makes in the fourth quarter). From there, he spent the rest of the series refusing to be screened and denying Jalen Brunson any and all room to breathe.
Averaging 30.7 points, Brunson still got his. But Nesmith bothered him just enough to bleed value from the Knicks’ offense and help the Pacers get to four wins before New York could.
Now, the Pacers will desperately need Nesmith to carry out a similar task against the 2024-25 MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander represents a bigger, more explosive version of the calculated isolation ball the Pacers just withstood from Brunson.
While Andrew Nembhard will surely see his chances, he just isn’t tall or strong enough to really deny Gilgeous-Alexander from getting to his spots. This places the burden squarely on Nesmith’s broad shoulders. While not as quick as Nembhard, Nesmith is a lot sturdier, giving him a better chance of throwing Gilgeous-Alexander off balance.
As well as being the one charged with defanging Oklahoma City’s king cobra, Nesmith will also need to keep up his current offensive production. Given his status as Indiana’s least dangerous offensive starter, the Thunder may try to be clever by putting their best rim protector, Chet Holmgren, on him with orders to sag off and protect the paint.
In this situation, the onus will fall on Nesmith to not only hit his open threes, but attack the short closeouts sure to come his way. Unfortunately, after a strong season as a driver and finisher, Nesmith has fallen off a bit in both categories during the playoffs.
There’s also the injury bug hanging over all this. During the second half of Game 3 against the Knicks, Nesmith turned his ankle pretty badly. He eventually returned to the game and even played 32 minutes in Game 4. But since then, he’s been unable to sur the 20-minute mark in his last two games.
With a hobbled version of Nesmith, the Pacers’ already uphill battle of winning these Finals will feel like a pipe dream. But if he can use these days off before Thursday’s Game 1 to recover and give them another game or two like he did in Game 1 against the Knicks, Indiana has a real shot at pulling off an upset.
Jalen Williams
Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best players on the planet and one of the greatest midrange artists this game has ever seen. But if this postseason has taught us anything, it’s the Thunder are at their most beatable when he’s forced to do things all on his own.
We saw this in Game 6 of the second round, when Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32 points on 76.8 percent true shooting and the Thunder were still easily discarded because his supposed partner-in-crime, Jalen Williams, managed just six points on 18.8 percent true shooting.
Since his Thunder reached the brink of elimination with that Game 6 loss, Williams has proven worthy of his moniker as Oklahoma City’s second option — averaging 22.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.8 steals on 60.7 percent true shooting over his last six games.
However, to win an NBA Championship, you need to prove yourself for four rounds. Is Williams up for that challenge?
If the Pacers decide to put Nesmith on Gilgeous-Alexander, it will be Nembhard who guards Williams. While Nembhard is a formidable foe, Williams will have a clear size and strength advantage.
Can he consistently take advantage of that mismatch? Can he quickly attack with second-side drives or catch-and-shoot 3-pointers after Gilgeous-Alexander initially pierces the defense? What about buoying lineups without the scoring champion on the floor?
This postseason, the Thunder are 9-1 when Williams scores at least 19 points and just 3-3 when he falls under that total. Even with a subpar version of Williams, the Thunder should be favorites to win this series. But if the All-NBA forward is living up to his reputation, Oklahoma City is damn near unbeatable.
