How One Play Summarizes Tyrese Haliburton’s Basketball Genius

With the Indiana Pacers fresh off their “Explain One Play” series.

Inside The Play

After OG Anunoby split a pair of free throws, the Pacers found themselves down two points with a little over seven seconds left in regulation (how they got there is another matter for another article).

Tyrese Haliburton brought the ball up the court, drove past his original defender, Mikal Bridges, forced a peel switch from a slower defender in Mitchell Robinson, stepped back for a three (which was later ruled a two) and boom — another big shot in a postseason filled with Haliburton heroics.

With that jumper — his third game-tying/game-winning shot of the playoffs with fewer than 10 seconds left in regulation or overtime — Haliburton solidified himself as one of the preeminent clutch players of his era (and as the second coming of Reggie Miller). But more than that, Haliburton reminded us all why he’s a basketball genius.

Let’s slow down that play and look it over again. Once Haliburton gets Robinson on him, he doesn’t try to attack downhill or hoist a pull-up jumper. Instead, he immediately turns around (a big no-no for old school coaches) and takes a peak at the shot clock on the Knicks’ side of the floor to see if he has enough time to duck behind the 3-point line.

But why? The Pacers only needed two to tie. 

In the moment, that does sound like the right play. But Haliburton isn’t a prisoner of the moment. Despite his flashy movement patterns, his mind is wired like a computer. He’s the perfect superstar of the DataBall Era. He doesn’t allow pride or conventional wisdom to guide his decision-making, only numbers and probability.

Haliburton understands hitting a three and ending things right there gives the Pacers their best chance of winning. , the goal of the sport is to win, not extend the game as long as possible.

Over the last three years, Haliburton has hit 37 percent of his self-created 3-pointers (per Thinking Basketball). So, in theory, the Pacers had a 37 percent chance of winning the game with that shot.

Meanwhile, if he shot a contested midrange two, Haliburton had a 53 percent chance of seeing that shot go in. That would send them into overtime. Let’s say, for the sake of simplicity, they had a 55 percent chance of winning in overtime (we’ll give them a boost with momentum on their side). Even then, that would only mean a 29.2 percent chance of victory when him having to hit the two-point shot is factored in (calculated by multiplying the chance of making the initial shot and winning in overtime).

Forget he pulled a Kevin Durant. When it mattered most, Haliburton made the analytically sound play, something he almost always does.

Haliburton Is A Basketball Genius

Littered throughout his game film are instances of Haliburton choosing the right play over the macho one. In the play below, Haliburton gets stopped by Bridges on his drive to the rim. But instead of settling for a short midrange jumper (roughly 1.1 points per possession for him), he opts for the no-look kickout to a wide open Myles Turner in the corner (1.28 PPP). Turner missed, but it’s about the process, not the results.

Right here, Haliburton gets Robinson on a switch beyond the 3-point line. Most spectators would clamor for Haliburton to zoom past lethargic bigs like Robinson, but he often settles for pull-up threes (just like in this clip). The logic is why test a great shot-blocker with an attempt in the paint when you could get one more point via the three. Plus, since New York’s best rebounder (Robinson) is out on the perimeter, it gives Indiana an enhanced chance at grabbing an offensive rebound and a second shot on the possession.

With 0.2 seconds left in overtime and the game already decided, TNT analyst (and former long-time NBA head coach) Stan Van Gundy recommended Haliburton should just the ball to whoever defends the inbounds play because there wasn’t enough time for the Knicks to get a shot off. And guess what Haliburton did… put the ball right in Karl-Anthony Towns’ hands!

At 25 years old, Haliburton did exactly what Van Gundy — with his six decades of life experience and basketball knowledge — implored him to without even consulting the former coach. It’s a simple decision and execution, but nonetheless an astute one. That’s the beauty of the Haliburton experience. His understanding of the game is so complex and refined, and he still recognizes when the simple play is the best one.

He’s a basketball genius at the peak of his powers, and that legendary shot he hit against New York is just another example of his brilliance.