Steve Kornacki’s Kentucky Derby 2025 Picks: Journalism to Win; Exacta & Trifecta Bets

Steve Kornacki’s Kentucky Derby 2025  picks feature some heavy favorites with a win, exacta, and trifecta play at Churchill Downs. 

Steve Kornacki is more than just the political analyst known for his mastery of the “big board” during election nights. Beyond the realm of politics, Kornacki harbors a deep-seated ion for horse racing—a love that traces back to his youth when his uncle introduced him to the harness races at Scarborough Downs in Maine. This early exposure ignited a lifelong enthusiasm for the sport, one that parallels his analytical approach to political data.

Kornacki is once again jumping into the numbers to make his favorite picks for another edition of the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.

• Journalism (3/1)
• Sovereignty (5/1)
• Sandman (6/1)

A ion Beyond Politics

While Kornacki is renowned for his political insights, his foray into horse racing analysis reveals a multifaceted individual whose analytical skills transcend disciplines. His ability to dissect complex data and identify patterns serves him well, whether he’s forecasting election outcomes or predicting the results of the Kentucky Derby.

As the 151st Kentucky Derby approaches, fans and bettors alike will be keen to see if Kornacki’s picks—rooted in a blend of data analysis and a deep understanding of the sport—will cross the finish line as anticipated.

Swing state polling or Kentucky Derby odds, Steve Kornacki has you covered. pic.twitter.com/lrhr9aLsJ1

— Nick Kayal (@NickKayal) May 4, 2024

Analyzing the Pace: A Crucial Factor

Kornacki approaches horse racing with the same meticulous attention to detail that he applies to electoral maps. He believes that the pace of the race is a pivotal element in determining the outcome. Reflecting on recent Kentucky Derbies, he notes a shift in dynamics:

“After the point system was introduced in 2013, the races seemed to favor speed, with sprinters often leading the pack. However, in the past three years, we’ve observed a change. In 2022, a torrid pace allowed Rich Strike to clinch victory. Mage came from behind in 2023, and last year, Mystik Dan, along with Sierra Leone and Forever Young, capitalized on a heated pace to secure top positions.”

This trend suggests that a fast early pace can set the stage for closers to make a late surge—a factor Kornacki considers when making his picks.

Kornacki’s Kentucky Derby 2025 Picks and Predictions

Win: Journalism

Kornacki identifies Journalism as his top pick to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Trained by Michael McCarthy, Journalism has demonstrated consistent performance leading up to the Derby, making him a strong contender for the win.

Exacta: Journalism and Sovereignty

For the exacta bet, which requires selecting the first and second-place finishers in exact order, Kornacki suggests pairing Journalism with Sovereignty. Sovereignty, trained by Bill Mott, has shown impressive form, making this combination a compelling choice for bettors.

Trifecta: Journalism, Sovereignty, and Sandman

Expanding to the trifecta bet, which involves predicting the first, second, and third-place finishers in exact order, Kornacki adds Sandman to his selections. Sandman has been gaining attention for his recent performances, rounding out Kornacki’s top three picks.

Note: This article is based on Steve Kornacki’s publicly shared insights and does not constitute betting advice.