Predicting The Pittsburgh Steelers’ Record With & Without Aaron Rodgers

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a hard team to predict their regular season as the QB position is a question mark.

Aaron Rodgers has not signed with the Steelers, but many still think he will.

Currently, Mason Rudolph is the starting QB for the Steelers. Will Howard was drafted late in the 2025 NFL Draft, but he is not expected to start this season.

It is not difficult to predict their playoff outcome. Whether it is Rodgers or Rudolph, the Steelers will continue to see playoff failure as long as Mike Tomlin is the head coach and they do not have a franchise QB.

The number of games the Steelers will win during the season differs depending on whether Rodgers or Rudolph is under center.

With the schedule released, the Steelers know their 2025 opponents.

Predicting Pittsburgh Steelers Record With & Without Aaron Rodgers

How many games the Pittsburgh Steelers win during the season depends on whether Rodgers is under center or not.

Week 1: @ New York Jets

The Steelers once again kick off their season on the road against Justin Fields and the New York Jets.

Fields played for the Steelers last season and was benched midseason by Tomlin in favor of Russell Wilson. Pittsburgh knows Fields’ strengths and weaknesses. They will play well on defense against Fields.

Aaron Rodgers spent the last two seasons with the Jets.

This is a winnable game for the Steelers with Rodgers, but they will struggle to score points against Aaron Glenn’s defense with Mason Rudolph.

With Rodgers: Win 16-13

Without Rodgers: Loss 13-10

Week 2: Vs Seattle Seahawks

DK Metcalf was the major offseason acquisition for the Steelers, and he faces his former team in week 2.

Seattle’s offense will be very different this season with Sam Darnold under center and no longer having WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

This is the home opener for the Steelers, and they will win this game.

With Rodgers: Win 20-13

Without Rodgers: Win 16-13

Week 3: @ New England Patriots

The New England Patriots will be better this season. Drake Maye will look to take a step forward in year two.

Mike Vrabel is the new head coach, and he will have the Patriots much improved.

This feels like a letdown game for the Steelers, no matter who the QB is.

With Rodgers: Loss 20-13

Without Rodgers: Loss 21-10

Week 4: Vs Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings’ season depends on QB JJ McCarthy. If he winds up being good, the Vikings are a Super Bowl contender. However, if McCarthy does not look good and he struggles, the Vikings still have a good team, but they will struggle to make the playoffs in a tough NFC.

Minnesota seems to fully trust McCarthy that he will be a good QB.

This game will be played in Dublin, Ireland. There is no home-field advantage for the Steelers, despite Ireland maybe favoring them.

The Steelers will struggle in this contest on offense and will lose to a better team.

With Rodgers: Loss 24-20

Without Rodgers: Loss 24-13

Week 5: Bye

No game for the Pittsburgh Steelers in week 5. It is an early bye week for the Steelers this season.

Week 6: Vs Cleveland Browns

Coming off a week five bye, the Steelers face the Browns, who are in a similar spot as the Steelers with their QB situation.

This will be a lower-scoring game as both offenses will struggle against good defenses.

Pittsburgh will win a lower-scoring game against the Browns.

With Rodgers: Win 17-10

Without Rodgers: Win 13-10

Week 7: @ Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow had one of the best seasons a QB has ever had, and still, the Bengals missed the playoffs. The defense was horrendous for the Bengals last season. This will not occur once again this season.

The Bengals will challenge the Ravens for the AFC North crown. Cincinnati remains a Super Bowl threat as long as Joe Burrow is healthy.

Pittsburgh will lose this contest.

With Rodgers: Loss 34-20

Without Rodgers: Loss 30-13

Week 8: Vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers, if he is indeed under center for the Steelers, will face the team he was on for most of his HOF career.

Green Bay is a very good team that has a good QB in Jordan Love and a good defense. Pittsburgh is not on the Packers’ level. Rodgers will lose to his former team.

With Rodgers: Loss 27-20

Without Rodgers: Loss 27-13

Week 9: Vs Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts took a chance on Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. This risk has not panned out, and Richardson does not look like the franchise QB the Colts hoped for.

Pittsburgh’s defense will show up big after losing two straight, and they will shut down Indy.

With Rodgers: Win 24-10

Without Rodgers: Win 16-6

Week 10: @ Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers had one of the best defenses in the league last season. They ranked second in points allowed per game last season.

LA signed RB Najee Harris in the offseason, and Harris will take on the Steelers. Harris played for the Steelers for the first four years of his NFL career, so there will be some extra motivation for the running back.

Justin Herbert is one of the most talented QBs in the league, and Ladd McConkey came on strong in the second half of the season as Herbert’s best weapon.

Pittsburgh will lose to the Chargers.

With Rodgers: Loss 24-16

Without Rodgers: Loss 20-10

Week 11: Vs Cincinnati Bengals

The second game between the Bengals and Steelers will see a different result if Rodgers is the starting QB.

Pittsburgh will play better at home in the second matchup against the Bengals.

The Steelers win if Rodgers is under center, but will not score enough and lose if Rodgers is not under center.

With Rodgers: Win 27-24

Without Rodgers: Loss 27-17

Week 12: @ Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears are a tough team to predict this season. They hired Ben Johnson to be the new head coach. They made a lot of offseason moves to revamp their offensive line to better protect QB Caleb Williams.

There has been a book out that Williams tried to get out of being drafted by Chicago but ultimately dropped the idea. One has to wonder how this will play out this season.

This is a tough road game that the Steelers will need Rodgers to win. Pittsburgh will lose this contest without Rodgers, but win with Rodgers.

With Rodgers: Win 20-17

Without Rodgers: Lose 21-10

Week 13: Vs Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are one of the best teams in the league, led by one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen.

Pittsburgh will just be outmatched in this game against a far superior team. The Steelers lose no matter who the QB is.

With Rodgers: Loss 27-17

Without Rodgers: Loss 30-14

Week 14: @ Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore smashed the Steelers at home in the wild-card round. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the league with Lamar Jackson at QB.

The Ravens will outmatch the Steelers at home, no matter who is under center for the Steelers.

With Rodgers: Loss 30-16

Without Rodgers: Loss 31-13

Week 15: Vs Miami Dolphins

Pittsburgh gets the benefit of facing the Dolphins at home in December. Miami is a completely different team on the road in the cold.

After losing to the Ravens and Bills, the Steelers’ defense will take over this game at home against Miami.

With Rodgers: Win 23-13

Without Rodgers: Win 17-10

Week 16: @ Detroit Lions

Another tough matchup for the Steelers late in the season.

Detroit is just a better team. The Lions lost Ben Johnson but they should still continue to thrive on offense. They have an excellent offensive line and run game.

Pittsburgh does not have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Detroit.

With Rodgers: Loss 28-17

Without Rodgers: Loss 31-13

Week 17: @ Cleveland Browns

With Aaron Rodgers, the Steelers will be in the playoff picture in week 17.

Pittsburgh will go into Cleveland with Rodgers and win, but without Rodgers, the Steelers will lose this road contest against a division rival.

With Rodgers: Win 17-14

Without Rodgers: Loss 17-9

Week 18: Vs Baltimore Ravens

This game will depend on how much is on the line for the Ravens in week 18.

If the Ravens need to win this contest, they will. However, if Baltimore does not need to win this contest for playoff implications, Rodgers and the Steelers will win this matchup at home.

With Rodgers: Win 21-17

Without Rodgers: Loss 20-10

Steelers Record With & Without Aaron Rodgers

There is no denying the Steelers will have a better record with Rodgers than without.

With Rodgers, it is predicted they have a record of 9-8. This may not be good enough to make the playoffs in the AFC.

Without Rodgers, it is predicted they have a record of 4-13.

The reason for this massive swing in wins is that the Steelers, with Rodgers, will score more points and win close games. Without Rodgers, they will not score enough to win those close games.

This is not saying Rodgers makes the Steelers much better, but enough to win more one-score games than Rudolph.

The Steelers may miss the postseason even with Rodgers, and regardless of who is under center, Pittsburgh will once again not win a playoff game.