2025 NBA Playoffs Preview: Cavaliers Look To Continue Historic Season Against Heat In Round 1

For the first time since LeBron James left town, the Cleveland Cavaliers will enter a playoff series as heavy favorites. After a historic regular season, the East’s top team will begin its postseason journey looking to dispatch the Miami Heat. In what has become a yearly tradition, The Heat escaped the Play-In Tournament, this time as the 10th seed, to make the NBA Playoffs.

Miami’s season has been quite tumultuous, but Jimmy Butler’s trade to the Golden State Warriors helped usher in a new era. Tyler Herro’s evolution this season dragged the Heat to this point, as he’s blossomed into a bona fide offensive star.

From a talent perspective, Miami’s roster lags far behind Cleveland’s. Can the Heat miraculously upset a high seed, as they’ve done before?

The Numbers

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 64-18, No.1 seed

• Net Rating: third (plus-9.2)
• Offensive Rating: first (121.0)
• Defensive Rating: eighth (111.8)

Miami Heat

Record: 37-45, No. 8 seed

• Net Rating: 16th (plus-0.4)
• Offensive Rating: 21st (112.4)
• Defensive Rating: ninth (112.0)

Tyler Herro Must Shine Bright In This Matchup

Cleveland’s winning formula for this series won’t be complicated. As long as the Cavaliers continue to dominate both sides of the ball as they have all season, they should come out on top. Despite a few unwanted losses late in the season, the Cavs sported the NBA’s top-ranked half-court offense and fifth-best half-court defense, according to Cleaning the Glass.

How can Miami crack the juggernaut Cavaliers? We’ve seen head coach Erik Spoelstra’s Heat teams overcome more talented opponents through shrewd game-planning and hot shooting. Those teams, however, critically employed Butler, which this edition does not. Herro is a star lead guard, though, averaging 23.9 points and 5.5 assists per game on a true shooting clip three points above league average.

A Miami upset will depend on a nuclear Herro series. Cleveland will test his shifted approach this season, eschewing long midrange jumpers in favor of threes and layups. The Cavs give up the sixth-highest midrange frequency in the NBA (28.1 percent) and will coax Herro into long twos. He matches up favorably with Cleveland’s guards, though, which could bode well for his scoring in this series.

Conversely, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland should see favorable matchups against Miami as well, as they’ll have to hide Herro, Duncan Robinson and Alec Burks. As a defense-first team, the Heat must stifle Cleveland’s high-powered offense, hoping to win a low-scoring series.

The Cavaliers’ X Factor: Evan Mobley

Cleveland’s loss to the Boston Celtics in the second round last season foreshadowed Evan Mobley’s growth this year. Without Jarrett Allen or Donovan Mitchell for much of the series, the Cavs turned to their fledgling star center and he delivered to the tune of 21.4 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists while shooting 66.2 percent inside the arc.

This year’s Cavs team will enjoy a healthy Mitchell and Allen, as well as the benefits of head coach Kenny Atkinson’s presence. If Mobley builds on his season and plays like an unstoppable offensive force, the Cavs might steamroll Miami. Bam Adebayo will match up with him often and if Mobley can still play like an offensive star, Cleveland will win the series comfortably

The Heat’s X Factor: Kel’el Ware

Cleveland’s center duo of Allen and Mobley offers it defensive and offensive options most teams can’t match. Rookie center Kel’el Ware gives Miami a chance to answer the Cavs’ double-big lineups, with which they start and often close. Cleveland’s dominated in lineups featuring Mobley and Allen this season, posting a stellar plus-12.4 net rating.

The Heat’s double-big lineup should help them fight against Cleveland’s skyscrapers; they posted a plus-4.9 net rating in lineups with Ware and Adebayo this season (526 minutes). Ware’s sheer size makes up for Adebayo’s lack of height, allowing him to roam in space and destroy offensive plans.

Adebayo should step up and bother Cleveland’s bigs, but there’s no guarantee Ware can do the same in his first postseason. But if Miami hopes to upset the Cavs, Ware must acclimate quickly, especially in lineups without Adebayo.

Prediction: Cavaliers In Five

The Cavaliers will face significant challenges later in the postseason, but those shouldn’t start until their second-round series. While a feisty Heat squad with a swarming defense will give Cleveland as much as it can handle, the Cavs should take this series fairly comfortably. Despite Miami’s history of lower-seeded upsets, Cleveland’s gigantic talent advantage should carry it to the second round.