A tremendous 2025 postseason is set to conclude with an NBA Finals matchup offering promise of a fitting conclusion.
Becoming exceedingly known online as the Paul George Bowl for the way these teams have built themselves on the back of trading the star swingman, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers each find themselves four wins away from a first NBA title.
The Thunder have been the favorite to win the championship much of the postseason and have lived up to expectations thus far. They boast the league’s MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a pair of rising stars in Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, and the league’s stingiest defense.
In the other corner, Indiana boasts a cerebral, thrill-seeking leader in Tyrese Haliburton, a “Robin” good enough to win Eastern Conference Finals MVP in Pascal Siakam, and the best transition game in the league. The Pacers certainly weren’t expected to be here ahead of the likes of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics yet they are.
There isn’t much to say if they still haven’t earned your respect.
Oklahoma City will open the series as the favorite, as it should. Indiana has shown over the course of its 12 playoff wins, though, it has enough in its arsenal to ask serious questions of its Finals opponent.
Here’s everything you need to know about why this matchup has the makings of a great series.
The Numbers
Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 68-14, No. 1 Seed
- Net Rating: first (plus-12.7)
- Offensive Rating: third (119.2)
- Defensive Rating: first (106.6)
Indiana Pacers
Record: 50-32, No.4 seed
- Net Rating: 13th (plus-2.1)
- Offensive Rating: ninth (115.4)
- Defensive Rating: 14th (113.3)
A Battle Of Depth
Pacers role players: Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, Obi Toppin, T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, Ben Sheppard, Thomas Bryant
Note: Jarace Walker is expected to miss at least the first two games.
Thunder role players: Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Kenrich Williams
As far as “swing players” are concerned — those capable of swinging a playoff game — it’s incredible both these teams have at least four who can do so. That’s a big reason they’re on this grand stage battling for the league’s biggest prize. Their unrelenting nature is due in big part to the efforts of all the players listed above.
The Thunder are the bigger team in this series, which is where the likes of Nembhard and McConnell will face challenges. Nembhard’s defense against Jalen Brunson was fantastic in Game 6 last round, but defending Gilgeous-Alexander or Williams will be a different can of worms.
You can see size creating defensive advantages for the Thunder and defensive disadvantages for the Pacers. That’s why Indiana’s role players will have to excel offensively. Among Nesmith, Nembhard, Sheppard and, perhaps, Bryant — if he can provide another game or two of big time corner threes — the Pacers will believe they can outdo Dort, Caruso, Wallace and Joe from the deep.
The Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks couldn’t come close to matching the Pacers’ depth but the Thunder absolutely can.
How Will Ball Pressure Play Out?
One of the prevailing themes of great modern day defense is to prevent early shot clock attempts, as they statistically present the most efficient scoring opportunities.
Indiana has had higher pick-up points on opposing players than any other team in the league. With Jalen Brunson and Darius Garland, it was an average of 60 feet. That can be very effective when trying to wear down opponents relatively lacking in depth, and it worked against the Knicks and Cavs. The Pacers are nowhere near what Oklahoma City is defensively but they can defend in a multitude of ways.
For example, with the freight train that is Giannis Antetokounmpo, Indiana was happy to back off during the first round. The pick-up point against him was only 30 feet away from the basket, so just beyond the 3-point line. There are no great options against a 68-win team, just pick-your-poison ones. I suspect the Pacers will selectively apply ball pressure but generally back off Gilgeous-Alexander to try and deter drives.
If they can force more shots from the outside, including from Gilgeous-Alexander, they’ll consider it a win.
Oklahoma City, meanwhile, will be more than happy to force the ball out of Haliburton’s hands and dare the Pacers to score without his playmaking. Unlike previous Pacers opponents, the Thunder have the depth to be incessant in hounding Haliburton for however long it takes.
Creating turnovers and running out for easy baskets is a key factor for the Thunder as well, but the Pacers are also great at taking care of the ball. Can they resist the pressure that will assuredly come from Dort, Wallace, Caruso and others? This is where protecting the ball and hitting shots will be vital in making the Thunder think about backing off.
NBA Finals X Factor: Experience
Frankly speaking, all the pressure is on the Thunder. The gulf between a 68-win regular season that culminates in a title versus one that doesn’t is gargantuan. The Pacers are not supposed to be here and — as much as they won’t think it or play like it — are sitting on a boatload of house money.
Now at the final hurdle, how will Oklahoma City cope with that pressure? Every test to this point has been ed, its biggest one thus far coming in round two against a Denver Nuggets team with a clear experience advantage.
Indiana lacks notable NBA Finals experience, barring one key player (Siakam) and its head coach. How much does that matter? There’s an argument to be made neither of the majority of these teams having experienced this stage negates the experience factor entirely.
However, what if Siakam’s previous championship experience is enough to be far better than Jalen Williams? That can create a ripple effect on the dynamic of the entire series.
Then, there’s Rick Carlisle. He’s also been here before, has coached exceedingly well to this point and has a staff that will put his team in prime position to compete. Let’s not forget, he’s led an underdog to a title against a heavily favored super team before (see: 2011 Dallas Mavericks).
Mark Daigneault has helped steer the Thunder ship through troubled waters and the defensive execution has been a sight to behold throughout. His resume is still fairly short and this run isn’t spotless, though. There were some bewildering decisions in Games 1 and 3 against the Nuggets, so it’ll be interesting to see how he responds if the Pacers can create similar predicaments.
NBA Finals Prediction
Thunder in six.
Indiana’s two key advantages through the postseason have been depth and an unstoppable transition game. Oklahoma City has the depth to be just as impactful and a defense which can absolutely neutralize the transition offense.
Still, I don’t think the Pacers’ offense is getting enough credit, considering how many people are picking this series to end in a sweep or gentleman’s sweep for the Thunder. But ultimately, Oklahoma City owns too much two-way firepower and is my pick to win it all.
