Whether it be their first meeting the day after Christmas or their second meeting six weeks ago, much has changed since the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City twice squared off during the regular season. When they initially clashed, Indiana was just 14-16 and without Aaron Nesmith while Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso were sidelined for Oklahoma City. In late March, Bennedict Mathurin sat out while Holmgren was again absent and the Thunder played the entire second half without a true center once Isaiah Hartenstein exited because of hip soreness.
Yet as I watched back through both contests this week, I found myself pondering plenty of curiosities that could be relevant for their impending NBA Finals duel, which begins Thursday night. With Game 1 just a day away, here are three key questions I’ll be monitoring when the Pacers and Thunder meet over the next 2.5 weeks.
Can Tyrese Haliburton Get Downhill?
During the regular season, Tyrese Haliburton averaged 10.8 drives per game, per NBA.com. In two games against the Thunder, that number plummeted to 6.0.
Tyrese’s % of touches that touched the paint
Regular Season: 11.34
vs. OKC: 6.67Tyrese’s % of touches that touched the restricted area
Regular Season: 2.43
vs. OKC: 1.82Tyrese’s drives per 100 possessions
Regular season: 15.485
vs. OKC: 8.633— Caitlin Cooper (@C2_Cooper) June 3, 2025
Throughout the Pacers’ playoff run, Haliburton’s driving has greatly influenced their success. Across 12 wins, he’s averaging 12.8 drives, shooting 61.0 percent on them and scoring 8.8 points via drives. In four losses, he’s averaging 9.0 drives, shooting 50.0 percent on them and scoring 4.0 points via drives.
Those downhill escapades lather up Indiana’s offense. When they go dormant or prove less fruitful, the collective attack craters. The Pacers are logging 123.0 points per 100 possessions in wins and 101.3 points per 100 possessions in losses.
Stocked with an army of irritating perimeter defenders and employing a scheme designed to wall off the paint, Oklahoma City wants to quell those drives — and largely did during two regular season rendezvous. After taking just six total shots in late December, Haliburton adjusted in their second meeting and aggressively hunted pull-up threes when granted even an ounce of space to fire.
He went 4-of-9 from deep overall, including 3-of-7 in the first half. Between 89 regular season and playoff games, a .750 3-point rate tied his eighth-highest rate of the year. In the second half, with the Thunder more cognizant of his long-ball-lurking ways, he found a little more daylight to boogie downhill and create:
Haliburton’s 3-ball has ebbed and flowed these playoffs — 27 percent in round one, 46 percent in round two, 33 percent in the Eastern Conference Finals. He’ll need that to stabilize and help alleviate some of the pressure this Thunder defense can inflict. Six drives per game won’t suffice as the nucleus of the offense.
I’d also expect to see Indiana capitalize on its offensive depth and have him occasionally begin possessions off the ball. Let Haliburton receive touches already in motion rather than constantly trying to break down the defense on his own. That’s a challenging proposition to begin with facing the Thunder, let alone given the constraints his handle may present against a unit as pesky as this one in help.
We saw shades of this tactic back in December and it yielded some encouraging results. Oklahoma City can switch actions like these to keep the ball in front but it might not be an immediate solvent and would likely unveil cracks elsewhere, too. Haliburton’s size, touch and decision-making are a menacing mix in this sort of spot.
If the Pacers shift Haliburton off the ball to ease his burden, the Thunder will likely counter by flat-out denying him — just as they often did against Anthony Edwards in the Western Conference Finals when the Minnesota Timberwolves tried to move Edwards off the ball (Oklahoma City will probably deny Haliburton independent of Indiana’s approach, too).
The response for Indiana is to lean on its ing cast offensively — namely, Pascal Siakam and Andrew Nembhard — and utilize Haliburton as a screener, something Minnesota’s lesser offensive options prevented it from practicing.
When Haliburton can and does drive, the Pacers’ offense usually hums. Sometimes, his scoring ivity makes it an internal issue hamstringing the offense — the does drive component of it all. These Thunder, though, feel more like an external hurdle — the can drive component of it all.
Head coach Rick Carlisle has implemented shrewd adjustment after shrewd adjustment during this playoff run to extinguish whatever solution the opponent thinks it’s unearthed. He’ll have to remain creative because the regular season showed this is not an easy matchup for Haliburton, but it’s nonetheless one he must leave a boisterous imprint upon to give Indiana a chance.
How Much Will Zone Defense Matter?
During their regular season games, both clubs showed a willingness to play zone. That decision wasn’t a one-off experiment either. Much like the majority of NBA teams, zone is a pitch in the arsenal for the Pacers and the Thunder. They’ve also seen opponents go zone in the playoffs to varying degrees of success, specifically the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers and, most prominently, the Denver Nuggets.
According to Synergy, Indiana’s faced zone for 87 possessions in the postseason and generated a prolific 1.172 points per possession against it. But in the regular season, it was far less effective, scoring 0.927 PPP (372 possessions). Without obvious driving avenues available to ignite the offense, the Pacers can grow stagnant, forget to screen (or use the screens!) and look bewildered, resulting in choppy possessions like this:
The Thunder, meanwhile, have played a staggering 222 possessions against zone in the playoffs (thank you, Denver!) and scored just 0.968 PPP. Its own driving game stalls and the lack of creation behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander becomes glaring. They’ve adapted at times, adding more baseline and weak-side cuts and relying on Caruso to play locksmith by screening or flashing middle.
Its regular season mark of 1.089 PPP is certainly much more palatable, but the Pacers do own a few lucrative possessions to reference. Oklahoma City’s decision-making can be spotty; zone requires different decisions from different vantage points against different defensive looks. Testing that decision-making and funneling the ball away from Gilgeous-Alexander’s dominance may entice Indiana.
Can The Pacers Punish Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Defensively?
As the Western Conference Finals progressed, the Timberwolves increasingly tried to involve Gilgeous-Alexander defensively, whether it be navigating pick-and-rolls, corralling shooters around off-ball screens or thrusting him into precarious isolation matchups. The problem, however, was Minnesota’s role players lacked the offensive versatility to punish this strategy, particularly with Mike Conley Jr.’s rickety showing (4.4 points per game, 32.5 percent true shooting).
Indiana’s offensive talent is much more dynamic than the Timberwolves’, which was mostly limited to excellent off-ball shooters who couldn’t thrive inside the arc. Nembhard is a viable pick-and-roll threat. Siakam is a mid-post connoisseur who will crush mismatches and rain threes. Obi Toppin and Myles Turner can stretch the floor or punish undersized defenders on seals inside. Nesmith is a marksman adept enough to snake through off-ball screens and launch on-the-move jumpers.
Compared to Minnesota, the Pacers offer far fewer outlets for Oklahoma City to stash and insulate Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s an effective defensive playmaker off the ball, but struggles around screens and guarding up positionally.
Oklahoma City is such a tremendous fast-break defense partly because its defensive depth creates fewer cross-matches for offenses to hunt. There are not always set assignments the Thunder are overly concerned about locating, which allows them to swiftly organize their shell.
Overwhelmingly, it’s beneficial; they’re top five in transition defense frequency and PPP across the regular season and playoffs. But I also think this comfort might be something Indiana can exploit to target Gilgeous-Alexander. Once the Pacers corral the ball, they’re a constant threat to score. That forces opponents to quickly arrange themselves defensively, sometimes regardless of preferred matchups.
Consider a play like this, where Gilgeous-Alexander wrangles with Toppin to dissuade a deep, early seal — a hallmark of Indiana’s frenetic offense — and is then thrust into rim protection responsibilities. The breakdown is by no means entirely on him (Jalen Williams get beat, Cason Wallace is late in the gap), but Indiana does force him into crucial duties throughout the entire possession and reaps the rewards.
In the half-court, the Pacers’ ancillary ball-handlers are better equipped to burn his staccato-style screen navigation than Minnesota could. I suspect Oklahoma City will start him on Nesmith, whose shooting and burly screening are weapons in their own right to stress Gilgeous-Alexander. But all of the Thunder’s switching and Indiana’s tempo coaxing cross-matches could also craft chances like this:
When defenses stymie the Pacers’ open floor opportunities, they’re masterful at cycling through half-court possibilities, rich with movement, ing and connectivity. Gilgeous-Alexander will be tested. He loves to loom on the weak-side and pursue blocks or steals with his length. That’s a risky mindset against Indiana, which takes care of the ball (top five in lowest turnover rate) and rarely enables defenders to stand idle. There is no role of onlooker away from the action because the action is always nearby in some fashion.
No matter if it results in bountiful offense for Indiana, I expect this series to confront Gilgeous-Alexander defensively. His off-ball focus, screen navigation and physicality against interior seals (without fouling) will be scrutinized. He is incredibly well-insulated and far from a matador, but this is the most diverse group and first five-out offense he’s faced in the playoffs.
That will pose new tests for him and his teammates, and he is the weakest defensive link with a guaranteed rotation spot. Plus, he’s the offensive engine from which Indiana hopes to sap energy. To what degree these efforts pay off may determine just how close this series ends up.
