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NASCAR Cup Series AdventHealth 400: Kyle Larson’s Top Odds, Predictions & Best Bets At Kansas Speedway
Jeff Hawkins is an award-winning sportswriter with more than four decades in the industry, in both print and digital media. He ed the Sportscasting team in 2021 following a decade of freelancing. He spent his early career as a reporter for various newspapers in Illinois, New York, Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan, with a particular emphasis as a beat reporter for the Chicago Blackhawks. Jeff earned his bachelor's degree in journalism from Oakland University. Over the course of his career he earned several sports writing awards, including two national awards from the Associated Press Sports Editors for column writing and news reporting. One of the five prized columns included a commentary on Get to know Jeff Hawkins better
Published06 May 2025
What are the odds of the AdventHealth 400 again ending with NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Larson winning by a margin of 0.001 seconds?
Moments after his run around the top to earn last year’s spring title at Kansas Speedway, Larson reviewed the circuit’s closest all-time finish.
It can’t be topped this weekend, can it? The odds would be astronomical.
Before entering Turn 2 and racing second to Chris Buescher, Larson told NASCAR.com, “I thought I was done. I thought it would be hard to get a bit of a run back to him.”
After a solid run off the second turn, Larson said: “I’m like, ‘OK,’ I might have a shot here.”
Knowing he had to run into Turn 3 “hard (and) and he entered a little low. He left me some clean air (and I) ran in hard, got to his right side. He raced me really clean.”
Off Turn 4, the machines of Larson and Buescher touched, leading to the 2021 Cup champ to attempt to “kill his run,” but he itted to not initially knowing the outcome.
“I didn’t know if I won or not.”
On the team radio, Larson asked if he could celebrate. Along Turn 1, he received a negative report, but by Turn 3, “they said, ‘We won,’ so pretty crazy.”
With 408 points, Larson enters the series’ 12th event 13 points behind frontrunning Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron in the drivers’ standings. Larson (+375) was also tabbed as the sports-betting favorite to win Sunday, according to BetOnline Sportsbook.
Below, we’ll preview the top storylines heading into Sunday’s AdventHealth 400, go over the odds, and give our best bets for the 12th race on the 2025 NASCAR schedule.
Finish to the 2024 AdventHealth 400 @ Kansas, Kyle Larson's onboard pic.twitter.com/D8SwAadGWU
— Andrew (@Basso488) May 6, 2024
AdventHealth 400 Storylines
- Ross Chastain ranks 11th in the standings, but remains out of the playoff chase. His P2 at Texas marks a season-best effort. The No. 1 Chevrolet also has yet to win a stage, but it has compiled 50 laps led. Can Chastain discover consistency?
- Josh Berry is another pilot seeking consistency. A winner at Las Vegas, Berry is playoff-bound, but he ranks No. 24 in the standings, lowlighted by three DNFs. Berry was leading at Texas when he lost control and crashed along Turn 4 on Lap 126. Since his trip to Victory Lane seven weeks ago, Berry collected three finishes 32nd or worse.
- Erik Jones, in his milestone 300th start, placed P5 for his first top-10 finish this season. Despite the season-best effort, he told NBC Sports: “It was a sloppy day in a lot of ways.”
A day the organization will be very happy about. @LEGACYMotorClub puts both cars in the top 10. @Erik_Jones: 5th@JHNemechek: 8th pic.twitter.com/QTp6YuBv7j
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) May 5, 2025
AdventHealth 400 Driver Odds
Here is an early look at the drivers’ odds for the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway, according to BetOnline Sportsbook:
| Driver | NASCAR Cup Series AdventHealth Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +375 |
| Ryan Blaney | +600 |
| Tyler Reddick | +850 |
| William Byron | +850 |
| Denny Hamlin | +850 |
| Christopher Bell | +1100 |
| Chase Elliott | +1600 |
| Ross Chastain | +1800 |
| Joey Logano | +1800 |
| Alex Bowman | +2000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +2200 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2200 |
| Kyle Busch | +2500 |
| Chris Buescher | +2500 |
| Josh Berry | +2800 |
| Brad Keselowski | +3300 |
| Austin Cindric | +4000 |
| Carson Hocevar | +4000 |
| Corey Heim | +4000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +5000 |
| Michael McDowell | +5000 |
| Ryan Preece | +6600 |
| Noah Gragson | +6600 |
| Erik Jones | +10000 |
| Jesse Love | +10000 |
| Austin Dillon | +12500 |
| AJ Allmendinger | +15000 |
| Justin Haley | +20000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +20000 |
| Todd Gilliland | +20000 |
| Zane Smith | +20000 |
| Riley Herbst | +20000 |
| Shane van Gisbergen | +30000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +30000 |
| Cole Custer | +30000 |
| Cody Ware | +50000 |
| Ty Dillon | +50000 |
*-Odds current at time of publication
AdventHealth 400 Predictions and Picks
Here are our best NASCAR Cup Series bets for the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway:
Kyle Larson (+375)
The race favorite continues to be one of the circuit’s safest bets. This weekend, too. In his career at Kansas, he has one win and compiled 426 laps led. Last year, he won by one inch. Will he enjoy more breathing room in 2025?
Denny Hamlin (+850)
Hamlin likely will contend for his third win this season if his No. 11 Toyota doesn’t catch fire again this weekend. After two wins and a runner-up finish at Martinsville, Darlington and Bristol, Hamlin slumped with a P21 at Talladega and a last-place finish at Texas. Hamlin’s Kansas comfort could lead to him ending his recent skid.
Joey Logano (+1800)
How about back-to-back trips to Victory Lane after the slow start? Logano, who finally secured this season’s first top-five finish at Texas, understands the patience needed to win at 1.5-mile ovals. In 6,335 career rotations at Kansas, Logano has led the field for 500 laps, leading to three wins.
Fire in the No. 11. Denny Hamlin is okay. pic.twitter.com/LjuFx6KyLK
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) May 4, 2025
