The Minnesota Timberwolves’ Role Players Must Step Up vs. OKC Thunder

At a glance, it seems like the Oklahoma City Thunder blew the doors off the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, with the final score reading 114-88. But a more thoughtful analysis shows the Timberwolves were in it for most of the night (even holding a lead midway through the third quarter). They just have one glaring issue to remedy as soon as possible.

Cold 3-Point Shooting

The Timberwolves looked very much like the Boston Celtics on an off-night, hitting just 29.4 percent of the 51 threes they attempted. Meanwhile, the Thunder hit 52.4 percent of their 21 attempts.

More importantly, those not named Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle (Minnesota’s role players) were 7-of-37 from downtown (18.9 percent). As for the Thunder, their complimentary guys (everyone outside of Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and Jalen Williams) shot 76.9 percent on their threes.

We’ve discussed in previous articles how important role player 3-point shooting, but this is especially true against a team like the Thunder. Oklahoma City loves to flood the paint with bodies and deny high-usage players opportunities at the rim. It did this to Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray last round while Edwards (first GIF) and Randle (second GIF) are now on the receiving end of such coverage:

This strategy comes at a cost. During the regular season, the Thunder gave up the third-highest frequency of threes in the NBA (per Cleaning the Glass). They also surrendered the seventh-highest number of wide open threes (per NBA.com). Since it’s usually primary creators they pack the paint on, these open threes are taken by role players.

Of the 30 wide open threes the Timberwolves attempted in Game 1, 26 of them were attempted by role players, who went 4-of-26 (15.4 percent) on those looks.

A Playoff Trend

This kind of thing has been happening to the Timberwolves all postseason.

Among the 16 playoff teams, the Timberwolves touted the second-best role player 3-point percentage (38.5 percent). Yet this postseason, their role guys are hitting 32.8 percent of their shots beyond the arc. Although role players have been shooting slightly worse from three this postseason, the Timberwolves’ 5.7 percent dip from regular season to the playoffs is far and away the greatest decline of the eight teams that advanced to the second round.

One could argue the Timberwolves’ role guys may have just been shooting above their heads during the regular season and this cold stretch over the last few rounds is regression to the mean. However, when you look at their volume shooters (Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, Nickeil-Alexander Walker, Jaden McDaniels and Mike Conley Jr.), none of them seem to be shooting way above their career averages. Heck, McDaniels actually shot below his career average in 2024-25.

Another explanation could be the Thunder’s swarming defense is so good at recovering to shooters they make what should be an efficient shot a difficult task. Of the eight teams to win a playoff series, the Thunder’s second-round opponent (Denver) had the second-worst difference in role player 3-point shooting between the regular season and playoffs.

But that doesn’t explain the eight games the Timberwolves played against the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors. This makes it seem more likely small sample variance is taking place.

The Timberwolves overcame variance agains the Lakers’ spotty defense and the Stephen Curry-less Warriors, but this Thunder team is a completely different beast. During this series, their role players have to hit 3-pointers at the rate they did so in the regular season to give themselves a chance. If they don’t, we’ll see three more games reminiscent of Game 1 and another quick Western Conference Finals exit for Minnesota.