Kentucky Derby 2025: Top Horses to Consider at a Muddy, Rainy Churchill Downs

The Kentucky Derby 2025 expects a rainy mess on Saturday, so which horses have some muddy track experience? 

Beneath the looming Twin Spires, Louisville’s spring rains threaten to rewrite Derby lore. As Churchill Downs prepares for its 151st Kentucky Derby on Saturday, a drizzly curtain falls over the hallowed stretch—transforming pristine dirt into a canvas of clay and slick puddles. For most of the 20 hopefuls, a muddy track will be uncharted territory, a test of heart over pedigree.

Yet amid the uncertainty, a handful of warriors will draw on past battles in muck and mire—colts whose lessons in sloppy conditions may turn adversity into advantage. In a race where margins measure in fractions of seconds, those accustomed to the drag of waterlogged ground could emerge as the unexpected heroes of Derby weekend.

Rain‑Seasoned Contenders: Proven Muck Masters

When the Twin Spires shine through drops of rain, a handful of 2025 Derby hopefuls will draw deep on past glories in mud and muck. Neoequos (No. 2, 30‑1) emerged from Gulfstream’s July downpour only to lose his rider in a bump, only to return in January and dominate by 3½ lengths on the same sloppy strip. Under Luis Saez, the son of Neolithic, embodies resilience, an edge when the track transforms into clay.

Final Gambit (No. 3, 30‑1), a late‑blooming Jeff Ruby Stakes hero, claimed his maiden on an all‑weather track turned rain‑pocked at Turfway Park. Though untested on dirt, his trainer’s confidence suggests that when raindrops mingle with dirt, this son of Not This Time stands primed to gallop home strong.

American Promise (No. 5, 30‑1), a Justify colt, cut his teeth in an Oaklawn mud bath on December 29, winning a maiden special weight to validate his pedigree. His lone earlier slop swim in last year’s Churchill maiden ended eighth, but that stumble whispers of lessons learned. Come post time on May 3, these three warriors know how to level the playing field—turning waterlogged adversity into an advantage.

Citizen Bull has arrived in the rain! pic.twitter.com/eIXw6J3T

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 24, 2025

Adapting to the Unknown: Maiden Maulers and First‑Timers

Beyond the seasoned mud‑pluggers, the Derby field will feature fresh faces tackling wet ground for the first time—or making dirt debuts entirely. Flying Mohawk (No. 11, 30‑1), an also‑eligible runner, first showed promise on a yielding Kentucky Downs turf, then chased Grade 2 glory through a sodden Aqueduct outer course. Now, Joe Ramos steers the colt onto Churchill’s oval, where every hoof‑strike in slurry will test his mettle.

Publisher (No. 13, 20‑1) carries a narrative nearly as compelling as his sire’s Triple Crown legacy. Steve Asmussen’s American Pharoah progeny boasts five in‑the‑money finishes—two in Churchill and Oaklawn mud—and tackles the Derby as one of history’s rare maidens. Irad Ortiz Jr.’s mount has mastered little more than mixed‑condition maiden fields, yet his consistency speaks volumes: in less‑than‑ideal surfaces, he finds a way. In a race where half the starters have never felt the drag of heavy water, these newcomers blend untapped potential with the edge of surprise. Under May’s gray canopy, the untested may rise, making the “most exciting two minutes” even more unpredictable.

Rain now creeping into the Kentucky Derby day forecast. #KyDerby pic.twitter.com/2UsB6iNdfe

— Lane Gold (@lanegold) April 29, 2025

Historic Precedents: Lessons from Mud‑Splattered Glory

Over 150 runnings, Churchill Downs has only nine sloppy and seven muddy Derby courses, yet each soggy renewal carries legend. In 2019, Maximum Security’s gate‑to‑wire victory was unseated by a disqualification, crowning Country House amid swirling puddles. In 2018, Justify’s Triple Crown journey began through three inches of rain—he thundered forward toward immortality. Super Saver in 2010 and Mine That Bird in 2009 showed that extreme underdogs can harness sloppy conditions to shock the sport.

On what was supposed to be Kentucky Derby day, we recall last year’s controversy.

Maximum Security won, and then he lost. A lawsuit was filed to overturn the DQ but this was thrown out and the result preserved.

POLL: Did Maximum Security deserve a DQ?pic.twitter.com/4im1uG9Az5

— Dan Lust, Esq. 🎙 (@SportsLawLust) May 2, 2020

Smarty Jones in 2004 and Go for Gin in 1994 reinforced the notion that pedigree bows to grit. Dating back to Citation in 1948 and Flying Ebony in 1925, mud‑caked champions have proven that the Derby crown rewards more than speed—it honors adaptability. On Derby Saturday, as torrential gusts flirt with Churchill’s historic rails, every stallion from the favorite to the also‑eligible carries echoes of those who triumphed in sodden splendor. When the starting gate springs open, the final quarter‑mile will dissolve pedigree drama into a test of hearts and hooves, reaffirming that at the Derby, the bravest thrive when rain reigns.

Embracing the Slop:

As you don your rain gear and settle in for the 151st Kentucky Derby, that—and understand why—mud bricks champions. In a sea of stakes records and speed figures, it’s those who can manoeuver through water‑filled divots who discover rose‑covered history. Whether backing a seasoned mud‑blood or wagering on a maiden miracle, anticipate drama, upsets, and the kind of two‑minute spectacle that only rainy roses can deliver.