Horse Racing

Kentucky Derby 2025: Contenders, Longshots, & Best Bets

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By
Colin Lynch
Author photo
Colin Lynch Sports Editor

Colin Lynch covers the NFL, MLB and WNBA for Heavy.com, with a focus on the New England Patriots. His sports coverage has been featured on The Sports Daily and Basketball Insiders, as well as FanSided's Chowder & Champions. A New Hampshire native and former D1 baseball player at St. John's University, Colin was drafted by the San Diego Padres in 2008 and enjoyed a four-year professional baseball career.

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Published28 Apr 2025

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Kentucky Derby 2025 Preview: Journalism Leads a Fast Field, Top Contenders, Longshots, and Best Bets

As the sun set over Churchill Downs on Saturday night, anticipation gave way to clarity. The post positions for the 2025 Kentucky Derby were drawn, setting the stage for one of the most competitive and speed-laden editions of the “Run for the Roses” in recent memory. Emerging from the draw with the weight of expectation was Journalism, the 3-1 morning line favorite, who landed in post position 8.

A field brimming with front-runners promises a blistering pace. Seven contenders have shown their best on the lead, raising the stakes for horses that thrive off the speed. Bob Baffert, back for the first time since Medina Spirit’s infamous disqualification in 2021, sends out two live contenders—each with the credentials to dictate the early tempo. But it’s not just about the leaders; closers and deep closers, waiting in the wings, may find their moment as the race unfolds.

2025 Kentucky Derby Top Contenders to Watch

*Post position is listed first

8. Journalism | 3-1

Trainer: Michael McCarthy | Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
With four consecutive victories, Journalism has crafted an aura of dominance. He’s a stalker by nature, content to settle behind the speed before launching his bid. Each of his Derby trail wins has shown tactical patience, with Rispoli guiding him confidently, striking mid-stretch, and drawing clear. His post position offers options, and with a favorable pace setup, he looms large as the horse to beat.

18. Sovereignty | 5-1

Trainer: Bill Mott | Jockey: Junior Alvarado
A closer who prefers to bide his time at the back, Sovereignty has used his powerful late kick to secure two victories on the Derby trail and a game runner-up finish in the Florida Derby. He thrives on fast paces and wide rallies, and Saturday’s setup could play right into his hands. If the leaders falter, Sovereignty will be coming hard and late.

17. Sandman | 6-1

Trainer: Mark Casse | Jockey: Jose Ortiz
A true deep closer, Sandman found himself 13 lengths behind in his recent starts before uncorking a furious stretch run to win the Arkansas Derby. He needs a meltdown up front, but with so much early speed, the scenario might be perfect for another dramatic late surge.

2025 Kentucky Derby Intriguing Longshots to Consider 

1. Citizen Bull | 20-1 

Don’t let the Santa Anita Derby fool you. Citizen Bull, last year’s champion two-year-old, has class and speed. A lackluster fourth-place finish in his last start came off a layoff, but his recent workouts signal readiness. Removing blinkers could be the key to unlocking his best form, allowing him to settle just off the speed and pounce late. At likely 20-1 odds, he’s a live longshot.

3. Final Gambit | 30-1 

Unproven on dirt but full of upside, Final Gambit closed impressively to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks on Tapeta. His pedigree suggests dirt should be no issue, and his final furlong in :11.91 was among the fastest of any Derby prep. History shows recent Jeff Ruby winners translating well to Churchill Downs, and at a price, he’s worth the gamble.

10. Grande | 20-1

Grande’s wide, grinding run in the Wood Memorial caught the eye. Despite covering more ground than most, he was still running on at the finish, closing into a solid pace. With experience pressing the pace and closing, he’s versatile enough to adapt to Derby chaos. At 15-1 or higher, he’s a legitimate contender to crash the exotics.

2025 Kentucky Derby Best Bets: Exacta Box (4, 8, 9)

  • Burnham Square (12-1) – Drawing post 9, Burnham Square is peaking at the right time. A Holy Bull Stakes winner, he’s shown steady improvement and figures to sit a perfect trip just behind the speed. His versatility makes him a serious player at a generous price.

  • Journalism (3-1) – The class of the field, Journalism’s stalking style and perfect post make him the most likely winner. Bred for the distance, he’s unbeaten and ready to shine.

  • Rodriguez (12-1) – Baffert’s speedster at post 4 will go to the front early. Removing blinkers rejuvenated him in the Wood Memorial, and if the pace holds together, he could be dangerous.

Betting Note: An exacta box allows you to choose two or more horses to finish first and second in any order. Unlike a straight exacta, where you must predict the exact order of finish, an exacta box covers all possible combinations of your selected horses. The more horses you include, the higher the cost of the bet, with payouts determined by which two horses end up in the top two spots.

The Baffert Factor and the Shape of the Race

Bob Baffert’s presence always looms large, and with Rodriguez and Citizen Bull, he’ll play a key role in shaping the early fractions. Expect Rodriguez to break sharply, with others gunning to keep pace, setting up a fast and contentious opening half-mile.

But in the Derby, the story isn’t just about speed—it’s about who survives it.

As always, the 2025 Kentucky Derby will be a test of talent, tactics, and timing. And whether it’s Journalism’s steady brilliance, Sovereignty’s late surge, or a longshot crashing the party, the first Saturday in May promises another chapter in racing history.