Horse Racing

Kentucky Derby 2025 Betting Guide: Favorites, Longshots, and Storylines to Watch

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By
Colin Lynch
Author photo
Colin Lynch Sports Editor

Colin Lynch covers the NFL, MLB and WNBA for Heavy.com, with a focus on the New England Patriots. His sports coverage has been featured on The Sports Daily and Basketball Insiders, as well as FanSided's Chowder & Champions. A New Hampshire native and former D1 baseball player at St. John's University, Colin was drafted by the San Diego Padres in 2008 and enjoyed a four-year professional baseball career.

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Sports Editor

Published02 May 2025

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The Kentucky Derby is one of the most wagered-on sporting events of the calendar year. Here are the storylines you need to know. 

On the first Saturday in May, amid a sea of mint juleps and fluttering silks, Churchill Downs becomes a theater of possibility. Twenty three‑year‑olds—none having raced the 1¼‑mile distance—jostle for position under a sky split between jubilation and tension. In 2022, 80‑1 longshot Rich Strike stalked the leaders before exploding clear, transforming a $2 win bet into $163.60. Last year, 18‑1 Mystik Dan held on when favored Fierceness wilted, paying $39.22. Here, casual fans and seasoned bettors alike conspire beneath the Twin Spires, drawn by the promise that in two minutes, anything can happen.

Decoding Derby Bets: Straight vs. Exotic

At its simplest, a straight bet asks a single horse to win, place, or show—finish first, first or second, or first through third, respectively. But for those willing to weave a richer tapestry, exotics beckon:

  • Exacta: Select two horses to finish first and second in exact order.

  • Quinella: Two horses to occupy the top two spots in any order.

  • Trifecta: Three horses to fill first, second, and third in sequence.

  • Superfecta: Four horses to cross in order from one through four.

With monumental pools—last year’s Win/Place/Show tote leapt from $2.4 million at Oaklawn to a staggering $104 million on Derby Day—payouts can redefine fortunes.

Favorites Under the Spotlight: Journalism’s Odds

This spring’s consensus favorite, Journalism, carries the hopes of the gelding’s pedigree and the power of a Santa Anita Derby bullet in his hip pocket. Yet Derby lore teaches that supremacy on paper often unravels under the glamour and grit of Louisville’s stretch. With millions poured into the “Win/Place/Show” pool—soaring from $2.4 million at Oaklawn to $104 million on Derby Day—Journalism’s path to the winner’s circle is fraught. When the gates burst open, value on the favorite evaporates; the savvy punter knows that glamour rarely returns mint on the tally board.

At 4‑1, Journalism carries Santa Anita glory under Umberto Rispoli, stalking with Curlin’s bloodline coursing beneath him. Yet Derby lore warns that stalkers can be boxed in or outpaced in the closing furlongs. The favorite’s price offers scant return; punters may find solace siding with a powerful closer instead.

No. 1 Citizen Bull (17‑1), under Martin Garcia and Bob Baffert, boasts a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile title and the rail advantage. Expect him to hunt the lead. No. 2 Neoequos (60‑1), a Florida‑bred with a Fountain of Youth podium, carries Flavien Prat in search of state‑bred history. No. 3 Final Gambit (17‑1), Brad Cox’s late‑running Jeff Ruby Steaks champ, tackles Churchill’s dirt for the first time.

No. 5 American Promise (12‑1)—D. Wayne Lukas’ Virginia Derby winner—brings veteran poise, while Japan’s spearheads ire Daytona (40‑1) and Luxor Café (14‑1), both UAE and Fukuryu Stakes victors, inject international intrigue. Luxor Café, American Pharoah’s son, arrives unbeaten in four but untested stateside.

Baffert’s Return and Jockey Legacy

Bob Baffert’s name still reverberates through Louisville. Reinstated after a three‑year ban, he saddles two contenders: Citizen Bull in post 1 and Rodriguez—scratched days before the race. Veteran jockey Mike Smith, already twice wearing roses, could become the oldest Derby winner at 59, eclipsing Bill Shoemaker’s 1986 record. Smith’s mount, poised on the inside, promises early speed; Citizen Bull is no slouch, drafted to set a searching tempo. In Baffert’s shadow and Smith’s stirrups, tradition and redemption gallop side by side.

Global Contenders: Japan’s Rising Stars

The “Japan Road” has elevated global hopes. Forever Young nearly denied Mystik Dan last year, and the 2025 field includes ire Daytona and Luxor Café—American Pharoah’s son. Luxor Café arrives unbeaten in Japan, his four‑race streak capped by a five‑length romp in the Fukuryu Stakes. He debuts on Churchill’s loam with questions swirling about surface and trip, yet he brings a rain‑tested résumé: four starts over wet tracks. If the skies open, his momentum could spill him into the Derby’s lunar realm.

Derby Day is a testament to wisdom aged like fine bourbon. At 90, D. Wayne Lukas chases a fifth roses trophy with American Promise; Troy, Oklahoma’s Lonnie Briley, 72, bets on Coal Battle, his first graded stakes winner. Lincoln Riley matched USC’s swagger with safety Kennedy Urlacher and linebacker Ta’Mere Robinson, while Charlie Whittingham’s ghost watches from the winners’ circle—he was 76 when Sunday Silence prevailed. Each trainer’s silver hair tells a story of triumphs and near‑misses; on May 3, experience is as coveted as speed.

Hidden Gems: Value Bets and Longshots

Among the outsiders, Burnham Square (22‑1)—winner of the Blue Grass Stakes and kin to Unbridled—bristles with late kick. Flying Mohawk (39‑1) and East Avenue (36‑1), both making dirt debuts, bring bold back‑stretch bids. Publisher (33‑1), Steve Asmussen’s Arkansas Derby runner‑up, seeks to erase his trainer’s 0‑for‑26 Derby mark. Each carries the promise that, in Louisville, legends spring from unlikely pastures.

When the favorite’s price vanishes, punters turn to the “wise guys” horse—and this year, that’s Final Gambit. A turf ace untested on dirt, he’s a silhouette in the shadows, but his speed figures and fiery workouts hint at a springboard finish. Chunk of Gold embodies the Derby’s fairy tale: bought for $2,500, runner‑up in the Louisiana Derby, and now in Ethan West’s capable hands. At odds north of 30‑1, these runners personify the Derby’s romance—upsets that knit themselves into racing’s great tapestry.

No. 17 Sandman (5‑1), Jose Ortiz aboard Mark Casse’s Arkansas Derby champion, marries Tapit’s preeminence with tactical speed. Sovereignty (11‑1)—Bill Mott’s Fountain of Youth victor—offers balance and veteran savvy. Coal Battle (31‑1), Lonnie Briley’s Rebel Stakes prodigy, embodies the hiboots‑to‑hustle narrative.

Post‑Scratch Contenders: Baeza’s Waiting in the Wings

With two scratches looming, the also‑eligible list shimmers with promise. Baeza—half‑brother to Mage and Dornoch—beckons from position 21. If drawn in, he’ll carry guiding reins of reigning champion jockey Flavien Prat, whose mount last year finished third. In Baeza’s veins runs derby pedigree; in his red flank cloth, the hope of the rails and high‑stakes thrill converge. Betting on his entry is a wager on destiny’s last-minute flourish.

In the cacophony of hooves, hearts, and handbags, the Kentucky Derby remains the sport’s grandest gamble. Whether you chase the favorite, chase the longshot, or chase a story, one truth endures: in that electric two‑minute sprint, legends are crowned and fortunes reborn.

My Top Five at the Wire

In the hush before the bell:

  1. Sandman – poised to pounce from just off the pace.

  2. Journalism – stalking favorite who can’t be ignored.

  3. Sovereignty – veteran poise in the late kick.

  4. Burnham Square – a powerful closer with pedigree.

  5. Publisher – Asmussen’s wild‑card, hungry to rewrite history.

As the gates fly open and the Twin Spires tremble with applause, this: at Churchill Downs, every stride is carved into lore. Whether backing the chalk or chasing the 60‑1 dream, the Derby remains sport’s grandest gamble—and its richest story.