Sports

Why Jalen Williams And Chet Holmgren Could Be The Key To The Thunder’s Title Hopes

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By
Ben Pfeifer
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Ben Pfeifer Sports Editor

Ben Pfeifer graduated from the University of Missouri with degrees in Psychology and Journalism. He has worked in basketball scouting covering the NBA and the draft for over a half-decade, working for various outlets. Now, he covers the NBA, the draft and high school basketball.

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Published05 May 2025

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In the closing minutes of Oklahoma City’s Game 4 matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies, Jalen Williams brought the ball across the timeline. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander attempted to screen for Williams, but Williams found himself isolated against Scotty Pippen Jr. Williams calmly blew by Pippen, accessed the middle of the floor and nailed a floater to extend Oklahoma City’s lead to four.

A few possessions later, with the Thunder still clinging to a small lead, Pippen attacked the basket in early offense. He challenged Oklahoma City’s center, Chet Holmgren, who contained the drive, picked Pippen’s pocket and turned the Grizzlies over, effectively ending the game and the series.

That sequence, which helped the Thunder complete their first-round sweep over the Grizzlies, exemplified the play of their ascending complementary stars. In a series where Gilgeous-Alexander uncharacteristically struggled, Williams and Holmgren picked up the slack. For Oklahoma City to break through the West, it’ll need its second and third stars to continue this strong play.

Gilgeous-Alexander, the presumed league MVP, averaged 27.8 points on a poor 52.4 percent true shooting clip against Memphis — both significant drops from the regular season (32.6 points, 63.9 percent true shooting). In the past, a slump for Gilgeous-Alexander spelled disaster for the Thunder, especially against playoff-caliber opponents.

Throughout the regular season, Oklahoma City’s offensive success depended on Gilgeous-Alexander and tanked when he rode the pine. Head coach Mark Daigneault often staggered Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, handing Williams the offensive keys for long stretches. 

Those stretches regularly sputtered Oklahoma City’s offense; in 772 regular season minutes with Williams as the lead creator, the Thunder posted a poor 113.5 offensive rating. When Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander shared the floor, that offensive rating jumped to a staggering 120.8 and skyrocketed further to a comical 127.8 figure with Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor and Williams on the bench.

That trend presented some concern for a playoff setting. When Gilgeous-Alexander sits, could Oklahoma City muster enough offense to compete with great teams? In four games against Memphis, Williams flipped that script, improving Oklahoma City’s offense when on the floor.

Across those four first-round games, the Thunder posted an excellent 124.4 offensive rating in 36 minutes with Williams on the floor and Gilgeous-Alexander off of it. With Gilgeous-Alexander on the court and Williams on the bench (40 minutes), Oklahoma City’s offensive rating dropped to 110.5.

We can attribute some of this staggering lineup shift to small sample shenanigans. Gilgeous-Alexander likely won’t struggle as he did against Memphis for long, and the Grizzlies aren’t an elite team by any means. But Williams needed to prove himself a viable playoff creator, even for short spurts.

Compared to the regular season, Williams upped his scoring volume (23 points per game) and efficiency (59 percent true shooting) in the Memphis series. He slowed his pace and leaned into his great size, maneuvering downhill to score at the hoop and find teammates. Williams converted a likely unsustainable 77.3 percent of his shots at the hoop, but his 28.6 percent 3-point clip should also stabilize as the playoffs continue.

Like his counterpart, Holmgren also increased his scoring volume (18.5 points per game) and efficiency (60.7 percent true shooting) from the regular season. Despite the presence of bigs like Jaren Jackson Jr., Holmgren had no trouble adding offensive value, notably through his outside shooting.

In the regular season, Holmgren made 37.9 percent of his 3.6 threes per game. He upped his efficiency and volume in four games against Memphis, sinking 42.3 percent of his 6.5 3-point attempts nightly. He confidently sank catch-and-shoot threes, regardless of any defender closing out hard to him.

Presumably led by the Denver Nuggets in round two, remaining playoff defenses will pinch the floor against an Oklahoma City offense littered with elite drivers, making Holmgren’s spacing threat critical. When defenders send gap help to Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, Holmgren often finds himself open on the perimeter. His ability to sink these spot-up triples efficiently makes the Thunder a nightmare to guard, especially for teams with slow-footed big men, such as Nikola Jokic.

Denver will make Oklahoma City’s life much harder than Memphis did. We can expect Gilgeous-Alexander to rebound but the Nuggets will sell out to remove Gilgeous-Alexander as much as possible. Against Jokic, Holmgren can space the floor and pop after setting screens, forcing the three-time MVP to defend in space. He’ll need to keep scoring confidently to release pressure and dissuade defenses from sending extra help at Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams.

During last season’s playoffs, the Dallas Mavericks evacuated the ball from Oklahoma City’s stars and force its ancillary players to make shots and attack off of the catch. Opponents will certainly pluck from that game-plan and try to limit the Thunder in similar ways.

But if their young stars continue ascending, the trio of Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Holmgren, combined with a historic defense, will be too much for any team to overcome. And at least through one round, Williams and Holmgren proved up to that task. A new test awaits starting Monday night.