Election Betting Odds vs Polls: Who Will Win The 2024 Election?

The countdown to Election Day begins as the presidential race will be decided on the evening of Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Despite the polls and experts predicting a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the best online sportsbooks have listed a clear favorite for Election Day 2024. 

Scroll down below to find out who will likely win the 2024 election based on the polls and betting odds. 

How To Bet On The 2024 Election

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4. Place your bets on Trump or Harris to win the election

Best Election Betting Sites For 2024

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2024 Election Polls: Who’s In The Lead, Trump or Harris?

Kamala Harris has taken a slim lead in the polls as of Nov. 1, according to FiveThirtyEight. Harris leads by a slim margin at 47.9% with former President Donald Trump trailing at 46.8%.

Wall Street has responded cautiously to the shifting polls, with market volatility increasing as investors attempt to price in potential policy changes under either istration. The VIX index, often called the market’s “fear gauge,” has climbed 30% over the past month.

On the other hand, the betting markets tell a different story. Trump is comfortably ahead, according to the odds, but his overall lead depends on where you look. 

Presidential Election Odds: Who Will Win The Election?

According to BetOnline, Trump has -175 odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election, which implies 63.6% probability to come out on top on Election Day. On the other hand, Harris has +150 odds to win, giving her about a 40% chance to win the 2024 Election. 

Meanwhile, at Kalshi, bets have started to pour in on Harris over the past two days. As of Oct. 29, 64% of the bets placed have come in on Trump to win the election but that number has dropped to 53% as of Nov. 2. In the same timeframe, Harris has gone from receiving 36% of the bets to 46%, an increase of nearly 28% during that span.

Trump vs. Harris Betting Odds at Top Sportsbooks

Despite trailing in the polls, election betting sites still have Trump favored to win over Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Top online sportsbooks like BetOnline, Bovada, and EveryGame have Trump sitting at -175 odds to win while Harris holds +140 odds or worse to come out on top. 

Trump’s probability of winning began to separate in the two weeks when Harris’ polling started to decline in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. The seven battleground states for 93 of the 538 electoral votes. 

Check out the latest odds from the top election betting sites below.

Note: all odds accurate as of Nov. 2, 2024

2024 Election Betting Map: State-By-State Guide According To The Odds

Who Will Win The 2024 Election, Trump or Harris?

In each of the past two elections, the betting odds have been more accurate than the polls in predicting the winner. However, Harris has been making a late surge in the final weeks heading into Election Day, which could make this race more interesting than the current betting odds might indicate.

Election betting odds at Kalshi continue to trend in favor of the Democratic Party heading into the final days of voting. But even as polls from the top publications have tightened, Trump has not relinquished his lead in the betting markets. Look for that to change in the final days heading into the election, as bettors seize the opportunity to cash in a better odds for Harris as the sudden underdog in the race.

With Election Day right around the corner, look for this presidential race to come down to the wire, giving new meaning to the idea that every vote counts.