3 Adjustments The Heat Must Make to Upset Cleveland

As many expected, the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers took care of business in their first two playoff games against Miami. The Heat scared the Cavs with a near-comeback win in game two, but to this point, the Cavs have done what an elite team should do.

Cleveland should end up winning this series, but the Heat will noy lay down and die like an average eighth seed might. We’ve seen Miami succeed as a low seed time and time again and they’ll surely adjust as the series moves to South Beach. Let’s discuss three keys for Miami to claw its way back into the series against an elite Cleveland team.

Continue Packing the Paint

In the regular season, a vaunted Cavaliers offense dominated teams on the interior. Their pristine spacing and movement led to easy drives and paint es, ranking seventh in paint touches per game (23.9) and first in efficiency (72.2%) in the regular season. In two games against Miami, Cleveland averaged 18.5 paint touches per game, shooting 57.9% from the floor on those touches.

This defensive strategy isn’t shocking, as Miami ranked third in opponent rim frequency (33.1%) in the regular season. The Heat pinch their wings in to play gaps and pack the paint, trusting their wings to recover back to shooters. Against the Cavs, they’ve dialed this up, hugging to the paint and forcing kickouts and tough mid-range jumpers.

Cleveland’s half-court rim frequency dropped from 28.4% (1.27 points per shot) in the regular season to 22% (1.10 PPP) in their two wins over Miami.

The Heat have done well to keep the Cavs out of the paint but CLE can still win with their 3-point shooting, of course pic.twitter.com/tp3pncRXA3

— Sportscasting NBA (@SportcastingNBA) April 25, 2025

Miami specifically targeted Evan Mobley, selling out to keep him from his bread and butter paint scoring. In his first two playoff games, Mobley attempted just 20 shots with nine of those coming from beyond the arc. Mobley drilled four of those nine triples, which could lead Miami to guard him more tightly, but the Heat will likely be happy with Mobley’s current shot diet.

Despite Cleveland’s offensive success so far — they’ve posted an absurd 122.6 half-court offensive rating through two games — Miami would be wise to continue this strategy. Cleveland made 41.9% of their threes in game one and 48.9% in game two. 

The Cavs were an elite regular-season shooting team, but the Heat can reasonably hope for more fortunate shooting variance going forward, especially at home. To upset a far more talented team, the Heat need some luck on their side and their current game plan could facilitate that.

Keep Herro Out of the Action

While Darius Garland’s ission of Cleveland’s intention to hunt Tyler Herro was blunt, it’s hard to argue with him. The matchup data for Herro isn’t pretty — through two games, the Cavs picked on Herro with their dynamic guards, seeking preferred matchups and going to work. With Herro as the primary defender, all three of Donovan Mitchell (5-7), Darius Garland (6-10) and Ty Jerome (5-6) created efficient scoring offense.

Miami leans on a switch-heavy approach, especially when Cleveland screens with other guards. The Cavs consistently sent Herro’s defender to screen for the ball and Miami often conceded the switch. Lineup data is always noisy, especially in samples as small as two games, but Miami’s defense has improved by nearly eight points per 100 possessions when Herro sits.

The Heat, of course, rely on Herro’s creation and shotmaking on offense and are a better team with him on the floor. They’ll need his offense throughout the series, so limiting his defensive workload by changing their screen coverage could help him remain fresh on offense and minimize his defensive warts.

More than any team in the NBA, the Heat embrace their zone defense and have relied on zone for far longer than most NBA teams. Miami cut its zone frequency nearly in half from the regular season (16.1 to 9.5) in their first two playoff games. They’ve had success in those possessions (0.842 opponent points per possession) and could lean on zone even more, especially during Herro’s minutes.

Lean on Nikola Jovic

Regardless of his own perception, Nikola Jovic’s two-way spark was paramount for Miami competing in game two. Before game two (and one lonely minute in game one), Jovic last played in late February, nursing a broken hand. Spoelstra tossed him into the fire in the second quarter and his play was a positive presence for the Heat.

Miami’s defense improved significantly in game two with Jovic on the floor, skyrocketing their defensive rating from 139.7 without Jovic to 113.5 in Jovic’s 26 minutes. While a small sample undoubtedly skews these numbers, Jovic’s size and paint protection helped Miami’s larger lineups thrive. 

Jovic’s size aids Miami’s rim protection, helping deter easy layups and keep the Cavs away from the basket. He’s a solid enough perimeter defender and switched out onto the perimeter in game two, keeping Cleveland’s deadly guard group from their preferred spots.

Nikola Jovic’s defense was impressive in game two, especially defending the group. Despite a poor shooting day (1-8 from beyond the arc), Miami needed his size, interior defense and paint scoring pic.twitter.com/KpvGgAKeUH

— Sportscasting NBA (@SportcastingNBA) April 25, 2025

A poor shooting night (1-8 on 3-pointers) kept Jovic’s efficiency low, but we should expect a career 37% 3-point shooter to bounce back from beyond the arc. Even considering his poor shooting luck, Jovic’s interior scoring and rebounding added value during his minutes. Assuming good health, Miami should continue to lean on Jovic in against an opponent that loves their three-guard lineups.