2025 NBA Playoffs Preview: Can The Grizzlies Cause Trouble Against The Top-Seeded The Thunder?

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the NBA Playoffs with sky-high expectations. After a historic season, stemming from a lockdown defense and a possible MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder are heavy favorites to reach the NBA Finals.

Memphis enters the postseason after a narrow loss to the Golden State Warriors before bashing the Dallas Mavericks in the Play-In Tourmanet to earn the No. 8 seed. The Grizzlies plummeted from the second seed just months ago and fired head coach Taylor Jenkins. Interim head coach Tuomas Iisalo’s squad went 4-5 over their last nine games, ranking 17th in net rating over that timespan.

Though the Grizzlies aren’t entering the playoffs in top form, they’re talented enough to push a team of Oklahoma City’s caliber, at least for a game or two.

The Numbers

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 68-14, No. 1 seed

• Net Rating: first (plus-12.7)
• Offensive Rating: third (119.2)
• Defensive Rating: first (106.6)

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 48-34, No. 8 seed

• Net Rating: sixth (plus-4.7)
• Offensive Rating: sixth (117.2)
• Defensive Rating: 11th (112.6)

Can The Grizzlies Generate Efficient Half-Court Offense?

To upset the Thunder, the Grizzlies must find a way to generate consistent offense. The Thunder’s all-time defense led the NBA in half-court defensive rating (90.4), turnover rate (16.1 percent), opposing effective field goal percentage (51.3 percent), opponent rim finishing (60.4 percent) and opponent 3-point percentage (34.2), and ranked second in block rate (11.9 percent).

Memphis’s top-six offense benefited from a potent transition attack. The Grizzlies ranked first in transition points per possession (4.0) and frequency (17.2 percent). But when playoff defenses tighten, transition frequency tends to decrease. Memphis’s half-court offense ranks 15th in the NBA, illuminating concerns over consistent shot creation.

Oklahoma City, which ranks second in opponent transition points per possession and efficiency, will force the Grizzlies to play against their impregnable set defense. Ja Morant can crack defenders with elite burst and explosion, but Oklahoma City peels and rotates as well as any defense in recent memory. 

Jaren Jackson Jr.’s power driving style could cause problems for Oklahoma City’s thinner frontcourt, but the Thunder will test his playmaking. Jackson Jr. drove a career-high 11 times per game this season, making just over 50 percent of his shots on those drives. Defenders can wall up on Jackson and make him uncomfortable, so limiting reckless decisions will be key. A Memphis upset will rely on his ability ability to wear Oklahoma City down and bruise it down low.

How will Memphis limit Gilgeous-Alexander? He put together one of the best scoring seasons in league history and shredded the Grizzlies in the regular season. His 36.3 points and 7.3 assists (1.3 turnovers) per game on a scorching 64.1. percent true shooting — including 41.2 percent beyond the arc — in four games against Memphis this season should worry the Grizzlies.

Two of Memphis’ better defenders, Jaylen Wells and Brandon Clarke, are both out for the playoffs. The Grizzlies’ best available perimeter defender, Scotty Pippen Jr., won’t have the size to reliably slow Gilgeous-Alexander and bother him in the midrange. Iisalo mixing in traps, switches and early gap help might slow Gilgeous-Alexander, but stopping him entirely is too tall a task.

The Thunder’s X Factor: Chet Holmgren

Holmgren played in only one of four matchups against Memphis this season and scored four points in just 25 minutes. The Thunder will expect much more from their second-year star, who’s facing a minor sophomore slump offensively. They’ll need his spacing and driving on the perimeter to pull the Grizzlies’ bigs out of the paint.

If Holmgren can continue shooting aggressively off of the catch (he’s made 37.9 percent of his triples this season), the Grizzlies will struggle to check him. He may have to work against a stout defender in Jackson, but Memphis could elect to keep Jackson in the paint instead. If Holmgren can match Memphis’ physicality and burn it from the perimeter, the Grizzlies will struggle to keep pace with the Thunder.

The Grizzlies’ X Factor: Zach Edey

Winning the possession battle will be Memphis’ best chance to snatch a game from Oklahoma City. While they’re much improved from last season, the Thunder still sit toward the middle of the league in opponent offensive rebounding rate (25.4 percent) and are 21st in offensive rebound rate themselves (24.2 percent).

Ranking second in the NBA in offensive rebounding rate (17.7 percent), Edey spearheads Memphis’ third-ranked offensive rebounding unit (28.7 percent). He snared an absurd 22.4 percent of his team’s missed shots in two Play-In games. Nobody on Oklahoma City has the size and strength to match him on the glass.

The Thunder’s swarming, physical defense will challenge Edey’s processing and decision-making, and they’ll test him on the perimeter with Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. His knack for creating chaos, though, could save the Grizzlies against a buzzsaw Oklahoma City team.

Prediction: Thunder In Five

Though the Grizzlies are more talented than the average eighth seed, it’s hard to imagine them dispatching the mighty Thunder. Teams will challenge Oklahoma City down the line, but a Memphis team facing internal turmoil and key injuries may not have the horses for the job.

Memphis has the star power to compete with the Thunder on any given night. Positive shooting variance can help the Grizzlies steal a game or two, though a sweep feels a bit more likely than a six-game series.