2025 NBA Playoffs Preview: Familiar Foes Meet Again In Pacers-Bucks Duel

They meet again, in the playoffs — again.

In what has become one of the most entertaining rivalries in today’s NBA, the Indiana Pacers (50-32) will host the Milwaukee Bucks (48-34) in the 4-5 matchup out East.

Seeds of animosity were first planted during the 2023-24 In-Season Tournament (NBA Cup) semifinals. The Pacers shocked the Bucks and Tyrese Haliburton stole Damian Lillard’s patented “Dame Time” celebration.

Since then, there’s been a spicy battle for a game ball after Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a franchise-record 64 points, an intense six-game playoff series last year featuring an altercation between Bobby Portis and Andrew Nembhard and an NBA Cup group stage victory for the Bucks en route to winning the tournament this year.

What will this series provide? Here are some clues.

The Numbers

Indiana Pacers

Record: 50-32, No. 4 seed

• Net Rating: 13th (plus-2.1)
• Offensive Rating: ninth (115.4)
• Defensive Rating:14th (113.3)

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 48-34, No. 5 seed

• Net Rating: 11th (plus-2.4)
• Offensive Rating: 10th (115.1)
• Defensive Rating: 12th (112.7)

Will The Bucks’ ing Cast Around Antetokounmpo Step Up?

After Lillard was ruled out for the regular season with a blood clot in his right calf, it felt safe to say Milwaukee’s season was effectively over. That belief gained further steam as the Bucks went on to lose four straight in the wake of his absence.

The easiest way to sum up what has happened with the Bucks since is to borrow from Nikola Jokic’s recent quote. “The beast is always strongest and most dangerous when they are vulnerable,” he said. For Milwaukee, that beast is Antetokounmpo.

Averaging 31.8 points, 12.0 rebounds and 11.8 assists in April, Antetokounmpo is embracing “Point Giannis” duties to resurrect Milwaukee. The result has been eight straight wins to finish the season and a seemingly new level unlocked.

We’ve seen Antetokounmpo’s playmaking improve over the years and this season is no different. He’s also cranked his midrange efficiency up a notch. He is the best player in the series by a significant margin. Now, it’s about who can and will take advantage of the opportunities he creates.

Different players have stepped up during the Bucks’ eight-game win streak. Portis, Ryan Rollins, Kevin Porter Jr. and Gary Trent Jr. have all had their moments. Brook Lopez should be a steady contributor, too.

There is no replacing Lillard, but Antetokounmpo can feed the village it will take to get this done. No village, no win.

Can The Pacers Carry Over Their Transition Success?

The Bucks are the better team in the half-court offensively by a small margin while the Pacers dominate in transition. Per Cleaning the Glass, Milwaukee is fifth in half-court offensive rating (103.4 points per 100 possessions), slightly better than Indiana’s sixth-ranked half-court attack (102.1).

But in transition, the Pacers are dominant, sitting fourth in efficiency (130.4 points per 100 possessions) and seventh in frequency (16.3 percent). The Bucks, meanwhile, are 25th in rate (14 percent) and 18th in effectiveness (123.8). The Pacers are great at both creating transition opportunities and preventing them for opponents. The Bucks don’t run much and will look to selectively push the ball (read: when Antetokounmpo has the runway to be a freight train).

If the Bucks are deliberate in running their offense and minimize turnovers, it will be interesting to see how the Pacers fare in that situation. If Indiana can run and gun as much as it would like, it’ll be sprinting to the second round.

Bucks’ And Pacers’ X Factors: A Battle On The Wing

Haliburton will have a big advantage against either Porter Jr. or Rollins. Pascal Siakam is an All-Star but Antetokounmpo is a class above. Lopez will be favored but his matchup with Myles Turner could be a wash.

Whoever shines bright between Kyle Kuzma and Aaron Nesmith is potentially crucial to this series.

The Pacers’ defense has unsurprisingly seen an uptick since Nesmith returned from a 2.5-month absence. Indiana ranked 18th in defensive rating between Nov. 1 and Jan. 15 when Nesmith was out and has jumped to 12th since his return.

He is one of the better glue guys in the league and very quietly had a 50-40-90 splash line this season (50.7 percent from the field, 43.1 percent from three, 91.3 percent on free throws).

Kuzma was acquired in exchange for Khris Middleton and has averaged 14.5 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists in 33 games as a Buck. He has shot 33.3 percent from 3-point range in Milwaukee, a mark boosted by going 11-of-18 from deep over the final three games of the season.

Whichever wing can have more big moments may very well shift the series in their respective team’s favor.

Prediction: Bucks In Seven

Recent logic dictates strength in numbers should topple the value of having the best player in the series. Still, the Bucks have a meaningful experience advantage and should be the better defensive team in the series.

Throw in a truckload of Antetokounmpo and I’m taking Milwaukee for the upset.