2025 NBA Playoffs Preview: Warriors-Rockets Is A Battle of Size Vs. Spacing

The 2025 NBA Playoffs are nearly here. This year, there are many compelling first-round series to follow, including a matchup between the second-seeded Houston Rockets and seventh-seeded Golden State Warriors.

Along with featuring two surging teams and a cavalcade of highly recognizable figures, this series causes intrigue for the potential philosophical questions it could answer.

The Rockets win games with their size, physicality and athleticism. The Warriors are in many ways the antithesis of the Rockets. Being a relatively undersized team, they rely on movement, cutting, skill and the spacing provided by their transcendent star, Stephen Curry.

In a perfect world, teams want great size and spacing. But what happens when a team with great size and poor spacing meets a team with great spacing and poor size? Who comes out on top?

The Numbers

Houston Rockets

Record: 52-30, No. 2 seed

• Net Rating: seventh (plus-4.6)
• Offensive Rating: 12th (114.9)
• Defensive Rating: fifth (110.3)

Golden State Warriors 

Record: 48-34, No. 7 seed

• Net Rating: 10th (plus-3.2)
• Offensive Rating: 16th (114.2)
• Defensive Rating: seventh (111.0)

Which Team Dictates The Of Engagement?

Houston doesn’t have a ton of shooting (21st in 3-point percentage) or on-ball creation. So, it’s heavily dependent on paint scoring and second-chance opportunities to bolster its offense (first in offensive rebound percentage). That approach is a huge reason the double-big lineup featuring Alperen Şengün and Steven Adams has been so successful; the Rockets own a plus-32.5 net rating in 162 minutes during their time together, per PBP Stats. With those two mammoths on the floor, they’re basically unstoppable on the offensive glass.

To make playing two stone-footed bigs together tenable, the Rockets turn to a lot of zone looks defensively. Zones are an essential part of any defensive arsenal, but they are far from bulletproof. In particular, the 2-3 alignment the Rockets deploy with these two on the floor is susceptible to quick ing and 3-point shooting.

Since trading for Jimmy Butler, the Warriors are 24-8 (Play-In Tournament victory included). Adding Butler has helped unlock a new Death Lineup of him, Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody and Draymond Green. The Warriors tout a plus-17.9 point net rating with that group — the sixth-highest mark of any lineup to record at least 300 non-garbage time possessions this year (per Cleaning the Glass).

Like the Rockets with Şengün and Adams, this lineup accentuates everything that makes the Warriors so dangerous these days. All five players know how to move, , dribble and play off of one another. And with Curry, Moody and the reborn Podziemski (45.7 percent from three since March 1), the Warriors also have plenty of shooting. However, given their tallest player in that lineup is the 6-foot-8 Butler, they’re vulnerable to size and interior force.

This creates an interesting quandary. Both teams’ weaknesses are exploitable by their opponent. But who can land the more devastating blow throughout the series?

When the two teams met earlier this month, it was the Rockets dictating the of engagement. Yet keep in mind, Curry was uncharacteristically cold, scoring three points on 1-of-10 shooting. Kudos to Houston’s defense for this subpar outing, but a dormant volcano like Curry can’t be kept at bay forever.

What happens to the Rockets’ defense if Curry fully erupts and makes playing two centers at once impossible? Will they get enough offense from guys like Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet to successfully play smaller?

As for the Warriors, what if they can’t play Houston’s size off the floor? Will they find guys who can bang inside with Houston while still maintaining the integrity of head coach Steve Kerr’s motion-heavy, perimeter skills-based system?

The Rockets’ X Factor: Steven Adams

It only makes sense that half of the Rockets’ lethal tandem is their X factor for this series. Adams was excellent when these teams played 10 days ago, grabbing eight rebounds and swatting two shots in 17 minutes of action. His strength and subtle rebounding tricks force defenses to key in on him, which unlocks more opportunities for Şengün — something I discussed extensively last week. Given his age (nearly 32 years old), recent injury history and the reading on his odometer, Adams will likely only play 15-20 minutes per game. But those moments will be of the utmost importance.

The Warriors’ X Factor: Quinten Post

Unlike Adams, Quinten Post didn’t factor much into the last game between Houston and Golden State, playing under seven minutes. However, I tend to think that was a critical error.

To me, the Warriors are letting the Rockets win any time they play Kevon Looney significant minutes in this series. Yes, he gives them a chance to hang physically, but they’re never going to out-muscle this Rockets team. Playing Looney hurts their offense too much because of his scoring and spacing limitations. In theory, Post should be able to approximate Looney’s rebounding while also stretching the floor at the five spot. Doing so would allow the Warriors to shore up their primary weakness (size) and enhance their greatest strength (spacing).

Prediction: Warriors In Seven

At the risk of oversimplifying things, the Warriors have the two best players in this series with Curry and Butler — and it seems like Playoff Jimmy is ready for action. In a series where the margins are this slim, that reality can be the deciding factor.

I anticipate this being a very tight matchup, one in which both teams have dominant games playing their preferred style. In the end, though, I consider the Warriors’ star power to do just enough and advance them to the second round.