2025 NBA Playoffs Preview: Can The Clippers Exorcise Their Demons Against The Nuggets?

The 2025 NBA Playoffs are nearly here. This year, there are many compelling first-round series to follow, including a matchup between the fourth-seeded Denver Nuggets and fifth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers.

It feels like a lifetime ago at this point, but the Nuggets and Clippers have some history. In The Bubble, the Nuggets extinguished what would become the Clippers’ best run with a healthy Kawhi Leonard by coming back from a 3-1 deficit in the Western Conference Semifinals.

While many factors have changed since then, a lot of the main characters (Leonard, Ivica Zubac, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter Jr.) are still in uniform. But have the ing pieces changed enough to produce a different result this time around?

The Numbers

Denver Nuggets

Record: 50-32, No. 4 seed

• Net Rating: ninth (plus-3.8)
• Offensive Rating: fourth (118.9)
• Defensive Rating: 21st (115.8)

Los Angeles Clippers 

Record: 50-32, No. 5 seed

• Net Rating: fifth (plus-4.9)
• Offensive Rating: 15th (114.3)
• Defensive Rating: third (109.4)

What’s Changed For The Clippers And Nuggets Since 2020?

When the Nuggets rattled off three straight wins against the Clippers in 2020, they did so by spamming their patented Murray-Jokic two-man game and preying on Doc Rivers’ over-reliance on offensive-minded guys like Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell.

Things are different now, though. Hamstring issues have made it difficult for Murray to consistently channel his playoff form while the Clippers have Kris Dunn — one of the most formidable point-of-attack defenders on the planet — to stick on the Blue Arrow. The Clippers have also swapped out Williams and Harrell for defensive hyenas like Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Nicolas Batum and Amir Coffey, giving the Nuggets fewer easy targets to poke at.

Oh, and Zubac — who had just finished his first full season as a starter the last time these teams met in the playoffs — has emerged as one of the premier Jokic stoppers in the Association. Over the last four years, Jokic is shooting 44.3 percent when defended by Zubac and 59.4 percent when defended by anyone else (per NBA.com).

This iteration of the Clippers is arguably the deepest and most well-balanced unit the team has put together since Leonard came to town in 2019. In their last 20 games (right around the time Leonard started to hit his stride), they’ve gone 17-3 with the best offense and fourth-ranked defense. They seem primed to right their wrongs of the past.

However, during that stretch, the Clippers have been red hot from deep. Since March 5, they’re hitting 42.9 percent of their threes, which is 2.8 percent higher than the second-place Milwaukee Bucks over that period.

Some of this is Leonard finally dialing in his jumper (44.6 percent from three during this run), but questionable shooters like Batum (55.6 percent), Dunn (41 percent) and Coffey (40.6 percent) are also tearing it up. What happens to the Clippers if those players start to cool off during this series? Can they no longer afford to give big minutes to the defensive-minded guys who made this unit so stout in the first place?

The Nuggets are also bigger and more athletic than 2019-20. Will Barton, Jerami Grant, Gary Harris and Monte Morris have been replaced by Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Peyton Watson and Russell Westbrook. The Nuggets have the personnel to disrupt the Clippers’ isolation-heavy attack (first in isolation possessions in the NBA), even if their overall defense has largely disappointed to this point. And somehow, Jokic is a better offensive player now than he was back then.

The formula of Jokic ball and athletic wings to disrupt Leonard and James Harden seems like it could be a winning one. But what happens if Murray can’t manifest any of his signature masterpieces? How does playing so many hesitant shooters (30th in 3-point attempts per game) hurt the Nuggets’ high-powered offense in the playoffs?

Both of these teams have some major questions to answer.

The Nuggets’ X Factor: Jamal Murray

Jokic gives any team a fighting chance against seemingly any opponent. But when Murray is also playing at a fringe All-NBA level, the Nuggets become practically unbeatable.

Will we get that version of Murray, though? This season has been the epitome of the Murray experience. In October and November, he averaged 18.1 points on 52.4 percent true shooting. Then, from December through March, Murray exploded those numbers to 22.6 points on 60.2 percent true shooting — only to finish the season re-aggravating his hamstring and tallying 15.5 points on 49.2 percent true shooting in his final two games of the year. If the Nuggets get the Murray of December to March, they’re in good shape. But if not, oh brother.

The Clippers’ X Factor: Kawhi Leonard

Making a team’s best player its X factor is never sexy, but it’s indisputable the Clippers’ destiny is intertwined with the fate of Leonard and his troublesome right knee. When Leonard is healthy, he’s one of the best playoff players the league has ever seen and the Clippers are a threat to beat anyone. And when he’s not, all hope is lost.

But there’s also a defensive wrinkle at play here. The Nuggets give so many opponents issues because few teams have the size to deal with both Jokic and Gordon. I’ve already talked about the Jokic-Zubac dynamic, but the only player in the Clippers’ starting lineup (Harden, Norman Powell, Dunn, Leonard and Zubac) capable of matching Gordon’s power is Leonard. So, along with being Los Angeles’ premier scoring option, he’ll also need to defend one of the league’s most physical players.

Prediction: Clippers In Six

I’m going to do something strange and put my faith in a player who hasn’t made it through a postseason healthy since 2020. However, the Clippers are more well-balanced and deeper than the Nuggets. And even though Jokic is the best player in the series, this version of Leonard isn’t too far behind. Murray’s lingering hamstring issues loom largely and diminish the Nuggets’ chances, giving the Clippers the slight edge here overall.