2025 NBA Playoffs Preview: Do The Pacers Have What It Takes To Upset The Top-Seeded Cavs?

Both the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers took care of business in their first-round series. After the Cavs swept the Miami Heat and the Pacers toppled the Milwaukee Bucks in five games, each team will have a bit more game-planning and matchup stress to consider for their second-round bout. 

A regular-season buzzsaw in Cleveland will face its first true postseason test against an Indiana team looking to make its second straight Easter Conference Finals appearance. Injuries and late-season shenanigans make it challenging to glean much information from Cleveland and Indiana’s three regular-season matchups.

If the Pacers hope to upset the Cavaliers, their stars must continue to shine bright. They’ll need to play at their best to overcome a roster led by four All-Star-quality players and a myriad of quality depth pieces.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 64-18, No.1 seed

• Net Rating: third (plus-9.2)
• Offensive Rating: first (121.0)
• Defensive Rating: eighth (111.8)

Indiana Pacers

Record: 50-32 No.4 seed

• Net Rating: 13th (plus-2.1)
• Offensive Rating: ninth (115.4)
• Defensive Rating: 14th (113.3)

Can Indiana Slow The Cavs’ Potent Offense?

During the first round, Indiana contended with Giannis Antetokounmpo’s driving and interior scoring dominance, and he lit up the stat sheet nightly. The Pacers found defensive success on the whole, holding Milwaukee to a 113 offensive rating in the series, down nearly four points from the Bucks’ regular-season figure. 

Cleveland’s offense will present a vastly different but more challenging task. The Cavs led the NBA in offensive rating, half-court offensive rating and effective field goal percentage. Head coach Kenny Atkinson’s bunch drubbed Miami in round one, posting a comically high 138.4 offensive rating. 

Indiana struggled at times to contain Milwaukee’s guards at the point of attack. Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and Ty Jerome roast weak defenses off the bounce and they’ll push Indiana’s perimeter defense to its limits. Atkinson’s inverted ball-screens, sending guards to screen for Evan Mobley or other guards, will stress the Pacers’ defensive coverages.

The Pacers will rely on Pascal Siakam to continue his excellent play, building on a series where he averaged just south of 20 points per game on an elite 63.5 percent true shooting clip. Cleveland’s dominant frontcourt will necessitate Siakam to defend up on Mobley and Jarrett Allen and create offense at the same time. It’s a tall task, but we’ve come to expect Siakam’s playoff brilliance.

Both Indiana and Cleveland rely on deep benches, but the Cavs’ reserve unit provides them versatility and lineup options Indiana can’t match. Jerome, De’Andre Hunter, Dean Wade, Isaac Okoro and Sam Merrill form a deep group of impactful players all providing value, whereas the Pacers’ reserves lean toward offensive sparkplugs.

Regardless of their bench, the Pacers need a dominant performance from their superstar lead guard in Tyrese Haliburton. 

The Pacers’ X Factor: Tyrese Haliburton

It feels odd to designate Indiana’s best player as its swing factor for the series, but an aggressive Tyrese Haliburton elevated the Pacers’ offense to buzzsaw levels. Haliburton’s playmaking is reaching all-time levels, tossing 11.6 assists per night in the first round. As he often does, he sliced Milwaukee’s defense with es all over the floor.

Haliburton’s superstar impact depends on his driving aggression, though. When Haliburton presses the hoop and looks to score at the basket, his touch and craft let him thrive around the rim. Despite Milwaukee’s insistence on forcing Haliburton left, he found the right side in the clutch and collapsed the Bucks’ defense consistently.

For the Pacers to win this series, Haliburton must hunt his own shot. He increased his rim volume (2.2 to 4.2 shots per game) and efficiency (70.7 to 76.2 percent) from the regular season against the Bucks and the Pacers’ offense benefited greatly. Cleveland’s defense will punish his hesitancy far more than Milwaukee could. He’ll likely bounce back from deep — Haliburton made just 26.8 percent of his triples in the first round — and must continue slashing confidently. 

The Cavaliers’ X Factor: Evan Mobley

The Cavs easily dispatched the Heat without a loud series from Mobley, who Miami sold out to remove. Mobley, like all of Cleveland’s stars, can fade into the background and scale down, helping him average 16.3 points on a searing 72.2 percent true shooting against the Heat. But Cleveland won’t skate by Indiana without a dominant Mobley, who’s perhaps looking for a repeat of his excellent second-round series against the Boston Celtics last year.

Indiana doesn’t have the bodies to contend with this evolved version of Mobley, who punishes weaker defenders with strength and power. Myles Turner historically struggles against physical, explosive interior scorers, and Mobley will have plenty of face-up and driving chances against him. He’ll need to overwhelm Siakam and undersized mismatches like Aaron Nesmith whenever the Pacers choose to defend him with smaller players.

Turner’s pick-and-pops are challenging to defend because of Haliburton’s creation and Indiana’s great spacing. Mobley must cover that space and continue dominating on the defensive end. If he can play like the two-way superstar he’s becoming, the Cavs could comfortably win this series.

Prediction: Cavaliers In Six

Most of these games, regardless of the eventual series outcome, will feature competitive, compelling battles. Cleveland should emerge victorious, owning the far more talented roster and a consistent engine in Mitchell, who raises his play during the postseason.

The Pacers’ talent, head coach Rick Carlisle’s scheming and their stars leading the way could help them upset a phenomenal Cleveland team. If Haliburton plays at his best and they manage Cleveland’s imposing frontcourt, the Pacers could squeak back into the Eastern Conference Finals for the second time in two years.