Sports

Are The Lakers Right To Target Rudy Gobert Defensively?

Disclosure
We publish independently audited content meeting strict editorial standards. While our content features sponsored links, from which we may earn a commission, this does not influence our recommendations.

Luka Doncic and Rudy Gobert are very familiar with one another. One of the most iconic moments of the 2024 NBA Playoffs came during Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals when when the Doncic’s new team, the Los Angeles Lakers, and Gobert’s Minnesota Timberwolves were set to face off in the first round, fans expected their cat-and-mouse game to be front and center in the series.

Through two games, with each side earning a victory as the series heads to Minnesota for Friday’s Game 3, it has been.

As a team, the Lakers have tried targeting Gobert defensively, with Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves attempting to hunt him on switches and score 1-on-1. In Game 2, they heavily relied on it as a source of offense. While they achieved some success, it ultimately yielded mixed results.

There are a few reasons for that. Let’s discuss them.

Gobert Is Good On Switches

Contrary to popular belief, Gobert actually handles himself pretty well on switches. The Timberwolves generally do a good job of not putting the four-time Defensive Player of the Year on an island by pre-switching actions and having their wing defenders fight over screens. But there is the odd time he has to guard on the perimeter and he isn’t bad at it. He was a good isolation defender last season, allowing 0.777 points per isolation across 118 possessions. This season, he’s just average at it, allowing 1 PPP in isolation across 98 possessions.

A few examples to contextualize those numbers. Thomas Bryant is not a good defender, particularly in isolation, and allows 1.4 PPP. Ivica Zubac is a great defender and allows 0.84 PPP in isolation.  It’s a mixed bag and the numbers can only provide so much information. Gobert’s role isn’t to consistently guard on the perimeter. But when forced to, he does a decent enough job and the early returns of this series prove that.

Through two games, Doncic, James, and Reaves have hunted a switch against Gobert 21 times. They’ve made just six shots and drawn four fouls. It hasn’t exactly been an efficient source of offense.

Part of that is how much they’re settling for jumpers.

They opt for jumpers because Gobert is elite defending around the basket.

And even when they do score, it’s often a “good defense, better offense” situation.

The Wolves are 4.9 points better defensively with Gobert on the floor this season (per PBP Stats), which may mean the primary objective of hunting him is to get him off the floor. Doncic’s ability to bob and weave through traffic has particularly forced Gobert into tough situations by drawing fouls on the French 7-footer. Perhaps, that’s the best reason to continue targeting isolations against the big man: coax him into foul trouble and onto the bench.

The Ripple Effects Of Hunting Gobert Defensively

While the Lakers have found inconsistent success trying to score on Gobert in isolation, another wrinkle could bode well for them.

Instead of hunting Gobert to try and score on him, do it with the intention of pulling him out of the paint — either to force a rotation for an open shot or to clear the lane for drives without his rim protection nearby.

When Gobert shows at the level of the screen on this possession, Doncic uses his burst to split the pick-and-roll and get to the basket. He can either dump it off to Dorian Finney-Smith in the dunker spot or kick it out to spark the Timberwolves into rotation. On this possession, they end up with a pretty good look for a James three.

The same idea applies on this possession, as Doncic thrusts Minnesota in rotation and it leads to an open corner three for James.

Plus, getting Gobert’s gigantic frame out of the paint also means more offensive rebounding opportunities for the Lakers.

On this possession, after a miscommunication, Gobert has to switch and cover Reaves off the ball. The Wolves trap Doncic in the corner, which puts themselves in rotation without their towering big man in the paint and James attacks the lane for a dunk.

This is where the Lakers can really target Gobert, force the Wolves to over-help and create effective offense. But they shouldn’t do this only to Gobert. In fact, they might actually find it easier to target Julius Randle, who is no Gobert defensively, or the diminutive Mike Conley Jr., who James or Doncic can exploit.

Due to the Lakers’ personnel, hunting mismatches is an integral part of their offensive process. But the more discretionary and precise they are hunting certain mismatches, the more efficient they will be.

So, How Can The Timberwolves Adjust?

It’s easy to say, “well, don’t switch,” but there’s much more to it than that. Not only has Jaden McDaniels spent the bulk of his time fighting around screens as Doncic’s primary defender in this series, he’s also battled against the Slovenian’s physicality and strength on every possession. That’s taxing by nature. As the game progresses, it becomes much easier to concede a switch and then try to provide some last-second help, as he does on this possession here.

Doncic is smart and he’ll find a counter to this. But the key for Minnesota is just to continuously provide him with different coverages and hurdles to navigate offensively.

Doncic, James and Reaves will all pursue mismatches. The Timberwolves will have to live with it on certain possessions, hoping their trusty big man can do enough on the perimeter to get a stop. They have to make sure they stay out of rotation, use pre-switching to limit how often the Lakers can pull Gobert out of the paint and provide rear-side contests in the pick-and-roll.

But as the series evolves, the Lakers must avoid hunting Gobert as the whole equation and aim for a more diverse approach. In the modern NBA, especially during the playoffs, an offense that does 10 things well is much better than an offense that does one thing at a high level. The Lakers have to ensure they’re the former instead of the latter, no matter how enticing the Gobert matchup may seem.