NBA
2025 NBA Draft Lottery Odds: Which Teams Have The Best Chance To Land Cooper Flagg?
Published21 Apr 2025
The odds and percentages for the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery were finalized on Monday. Which teams have the best chance of locking in a top-3 pick? And does anyone have the upper hand when it comes to selecting Cooper Flagg?
NBA Lottery Order Set On Monday
The top three (or bottom three, depending on how you look at it) has been set since the final day of the regular season. The Utah Jazz finished with the worst record in the league at 17-65, but that doesn’t mean they’ll get more ping pong balls than everyone else.
Since the NBA underwent changes to combat tanking and load management, each of the three worst teams now has an equal shot and landing the first overall pick. In addition to the Jazz, the Washington Wizards (18-64) and Charlotte Hornets (19-63) each have an equal 14% shot at winning the lottery. The Jazz can’t finish with a pick worse than no.5, the Wizards no.6, and the Hornets no.7.
The things that were decided on Monday were in regard to teams that are going to be at the back end of the lottery. There were five different instances of teams finishing the 2024-25 NBA season with identical records, ties that were broken by way of random drawings.
Lottery Odds To Land The No.1 Pick
| 1 | Utah Jazz | 14% |
| 2 | Washington Wizards | 14% |
| 3 | Charlotte Hornets | 14% |
| 4 | New Orleans Pelicans | 12.5% |
| 5 | Philadelphia 76ers | 10.5% |
| 6 | Brooklyn Nets | 9% |
| 7 | Toronto Raptors | 7.5% |
| 8 | San Antonio Spurs | 6% |
| 9 | Phoenix Suns (to HOU via BRK) |
3.8% |
| 10 | Portland Trail Blazers | 3.7% |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 1.8% |
| 12 | Chicago Bulls | 1.7% |
| 13 | Sacramento Kings | 0.8% |
| 14 | Atlanta Hawks (to SA) |
0.7% |
The results of the “coin flips” didn’t make out to much when it came to the actual odds and overall lottery picture. For instance, when the Suns won the tiebreaker with the Trail Blazers, their odds of landing the first overall pick changed from 3.7% to 3.8%. The Mavericks winning over the Bulls changed Dallas’ odds from 1.7% to 1.8%.
The Draft Lottery will be held on Monday, May 12th. The first round of the 2025 NBA Draft will take place about a month and a half later, on Wednesday, June 25th.
