3 Adjustments The Milwaukee Bucks Must Make To Save Their Season

Heading back to Milwaukee, the Bucks are down 0-2 to the Indiana Pacers. While the series hasn’t been as lopsided as the one we’re seeing transpire between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies, it also hasn’t been particularly close.

So far, the Pacers have held a lead for 94 of the series’ 96 minutes. The stakes have become so dire there are now rumblings the Bucks could be due for a major reconstruction in the offseason if they suffer another premature playoff exit. This means Game 3 is about more than just keeping their series hopes alive. For the Bucks, it could be their last chance at keeping this current core together.

Winning four out of five games isn’t easy. In fact, only 8 percent of teams which fall behind 0-2 end up emerging from this best-of-seven dance victorious. But just because something is improbable doesn’t mean it’s impossible. The Bucks can still right the ship with the proper changes.

But what are those changes? Here are three adjustments head coach Doc Rivers and the Bucks staff should consider implementing moving forward.

A More Strategic Use Of Brook Lopez

Styles make the fights in the NBA Playoffs, and this fight has not been the preferred climate for Brook Lopez’s game. A titanic figure best suited for safeguarding the paint, the 37-year-old center has struggled to deal with the Pacers’ spaced-out offense. Through two games, the Bucks are 36 points worse per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. As a result, Lopez has been partially phased out of the rotation, only playing 37 total minutes thus far.

While it makes sense to go smaller against a stretch big like Myles Turner, Lopez is one of the Bucks’ best players and it would behoove them to make sure they can still give him ~25 minutes per game.

One way the Bucks could do that is being smarter about when they play him. In Game 2, Tyrese Haliburton was the primary dude giving Lopez the business. Haliburton hunted switches to involve Lopez and worked from there. According to NBA.com’s matchup data, Haliburton was 4-of-6 (66.7 percent) from the field when defended by Lopez.

In Game 2, only 30 seconds of Lopez’s 16 minutes coincided with TJ McConnell being on the floor, despite the McConnell also logging 16 minutes. McConnell is usually on the court when Haliburton isn’t, and while he is a proven bench floor general, he can’t force Lopez out onto the perimeter the way Haliburton can. Rivers would be wise to try and align as many of Lopez’s minutes as possible with McConnell’s.

When Haliburton is on the floor, the Bucks can lean harder into their 2-3 zone and keep Splash Mountain docked in the paint. It’s something we’ve seen the Houston Rockets do with their double-big lineup, and Lopez had some of his best moments in Game 2 while anchoring Milwaukee’s 2-3 zone.

Hunting Haliburton

After a rough Game 1 showing, the Bucks bounced back with 115 points in Game 2. Still, there’s always some room for improvement in the process department. For Bucks, that includes being more intentional about who they involve in actions.

As my colleague Ben Pfeifer outlined beautifully, the Pacers did a great job of making Damian Lillard work defensively. The same can’t be said for the Bucks with Haliburton. The matchup data from Game 2 makes this clear. Lillard spent the most amount of time (6:30) guarding a burgeoning on-ball force in Andrew Nembhard. Meanwhile, Haliburton leisurely shadowed a spot-up shooter in Taurean Prince as his primary matchup (5:55).

Some of this stems from the Pacers having more creators in their ranks. So, Lillard naturally has fewer places to hide. But given how weak of a defender Haliburton is (28th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus), it’s in the Bucks’ best interest to put him in the heat of the fire as often as possible. Plus, the more they wear him down, the less effective he’ll be on offense.

Re-Examining The Depth Chart

I hate being the “X player deserves more minutes” guy (although, I often find myself making that argument) because coaches get to see their team more than any of us, making them the best judge of who warrants playing time. However, this situation feels different because there is data backing up these claims.

For instance, AJ Green needs to play more minutes. During Game 1, Green scored 15 points in 27 minutes, including 17 second-half minutes headlined by 12 points and four threes. Yet in Game 2, Green was relegated to just 12.5 minutes.

Kyle Kuzma was better in Game 2 than he was in Game 1. But even then, Green should be playing more minutes than Kuzma because he’s a better spacer and defender, which are crucial alongside Lillard and Antetokounmpo.

Speaking of which, with each star now healthy and available, there shouldn’t be any competitive minutes when both of them are on the bench. If one is resting, the other should always be on the floor. Makes sense, right? Yet for some reason, the Bucks had six minutes in Game 2 when neither of their stars were on the floor. That should not happen in Game 3.

Jericho Sims is a quality bench big, but he doesn’t really impact the game enough to average nine minutes per game in a playoff series. The Bucks would be better off staggering Antetokounmpo, Lopez and Bobby Portis Jr. to ensure one or two of them is always on the floor. This also becomes more tenable if they tweak when Lopez receives his minutes, as I outlined earlier.

Lastly, the Bucks should consider dusting Andre Jackson Jr. off the shelf or giving Ryan Rollins a second bite at the apple. Currently touting the second-worst defensive rating among 16 playoff teams, they need more youth and defense on the floor. Turner isn’t enough of an elite defensive force to the point he’d muck up the Bucks’ offense if Indian hid him on one of those guards and patrolled the paint.

If they’re going to come back in this series and extend the timeline of their current core, the Bucks have their work cut out for them. However, maybe implementing some (or all) of these changes can boost their odds and give themselves a better chance of flipping this first-round matchup on its head.