Movies
2025 Oscars Best Picture Odds: Anora Now The Movie To Beat
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Get to know Dan Girolamo betterPublished18 Feb 2025
Voting for the 2025 Oscars has officially closed. The votes will be tallied, and only one movie will walk away with Best Picture on March 2. Which movie will take home the top prize? View the Best Picture odds for the 2025 Oscars.
Anora’s Historic Weekend Propels Film To Frontrunner Status
Anora is the first film to win three of the major Best Picture precursors (GG, CC, PGA, DGA, SAG, BAFTA) in a single weekend having not already won another one of them earlier. So, in my estimation, this weekend was the single biggest Best Picture momentum shift in Oscar history. pic.twitter.com/BAXYP2oA07
— Ben Zauzmer (@BensOscarMath) February 9, 2025
When awards season began, Anora was pegged as one of the favorites for Best Picture.
Sean Baker’s whirlwind romance about a female sex worker who marries the son of a Russian oligarch won over nearly all of the critic guilds.
Anora received nominations at nearly every major guild. Yet it couldn’t buy a win.
After failing to win a single Golden Globe, Anora moved from favorite to the middle of the pack in of the odds of winning at the Oscars.
The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez established themselves as the favorites post-Golden Globes.
Then, Anora had one of the most magical weekends a movie could have on the awards season circuit. In just a little over 24 hours, Anora won Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards, Sean Baker won the Directors Guild of America (DGA) award for Feature Film, and the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures.
With these three wins, Anora went from wannabe to frontrunner.
Last weekend, Anora won Best Original Screenplay at the Writer’s Guild of America (WGA).
The only move to win the PGA, DGA, and WGA awards and lose the Oscar for Best Picture was 2005’s Brokeback Mountain.
2025 Oscars Best Picture Odds
| 025 Oscars Best Picture | Odds |
|---|---|
| Anora | -245 |
| The Brutalist | +525 |
| Conclave | +1011 |
| A Complete Unknown | +4900 |
| Dune: Part Two | +9900 |
| Wicked | +9900 |
| I’m Still Here | +9900 |
| Emilia Pérez | +9900 |
| The Substance | +9900 |
| Nickel Boys | +9900 |
Odds via Polymarket on 2/18/25 at 9 p.m. ET
According to Polymarket, Anora (-245) is the overwhelming favorite.
If Anora doesn’t win, what will?
The Brutalist (+525), Brady Corbet’s 3.5-hour epic drama, (+525) is Anora’s biggest competition. The Brutalist has the Best Drama win at the Golden Globes.
Conclave (+1011) won Best Film at the BAFTAs. If Conclave picks up the SAG win, Edward Berger’s political thriller could upset Anora at the Oscars.
